Rice easily defeated former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer in the GOP runoff, 56 percent to 44 percent, easing any concerns national Republicans may have had about the district. A polarizing figure in the state with a history of controversial antics and statements, Bauer could have been a problem as the GOP nominee if Democrats had found a top tier opponent.
For a race that had plenty of twists and turns in its final month, the runoff in South Carolina’s new 7th District was almost anticlimactic. Horry County Council Chairman Tom Rice (R) and former Georgia state Rep. Gloria Tinubu (D) are now set to face off this fall, and Republicans are heavily favored to win the new seat in the Palmetto State.
Rice easily defeated former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer in the GOP runoff, 56 percent to 44 percent, easing any concerns national Republicans may have had about the district. A polarizing figure in the state with a history of controversial antics and statements, Bauer could have been a problem as the GOP nominee if Democrats had found a top tier opponent.
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The rumors of Charlie Rangel’s demise were, once again, over-exaggerated., though the longtime Democratic congressman had to beat back a spirited challenge from state Sen. Adriano Espailliat, 46 percent to 39 percent.
Most Democratic observers expect this will be the last time the 82 year-old congressman will stand for re-election and believe he simply wanted to go out on his own terms. Democrat Ron Barber’s win over Republican Jesse Kelly in the Arizona special election to succeed former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) should boost Democratic morale but does little, if anything, to change the outlook for control of the House this fall.
Of the special elections held this cycle, this was the truest swing district, and one that both parties had heavily targeted in the past. But itscircumstances were unique, involving a nominee and a former representative who were wounded in a highly publicized attack. The stage is set for a competitive governor’s race in Montana this fall, with both Attorney General Steve Bullock (D) and former Rep. Rick Hill (R) easily dispatching with their primary challengers. We continue to rate the race as a Pure Toss-Up as Republicans try to take the governorship after eight years of popular Brian Schweitzer (D). Bullock is working to cast himself in the mold of Schweitzer, and will surely attack Hill for his years in Washington. But this is a competitive state that will host one of the country’s most competitive Senate races, and expect this to be a close fight.
In the state’s at-large congressional race, Republican businessman Steve Daines will face state Senate minority whip Kim Gillan (D). Gillan took 31 percent in the seven-way Democratic primary to win the nomination, but Daines goes into November with a heavy edge in the race to succeed Rep. Denny Rehberg, who’s locked in a competitive Senate race against Democratic incumbent Jon Tester. With the gubernatorial and Senate races taking up the political oxygen in the state, it’s tough to see how Gillan cuts through in the House race. The Republican candidate that cries “conservative” the loudest doesn’t always win the primary.
Child care center owner Greg Sowards, who had the support of Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), tried to run to the right of Heather Wilson but the former congresswoman prevailed with almost 70 percent of the vote. She’ll face Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) in the general election after he won his primary 58 percent to 42 percent against state Auditor Hector Balderas. The biggest surprise in the Steve Rothman vs. Bill Pascrell grudge match wasn’t the victor, but the margin.
Despite having a slight territorial disadvantage, Pascrell racked up a huge 90 percent edge in his home base of Passaic County to cruise past his Democratic colleague by more than 20 points districtwide, winning 61 percent to 39 percent. Republican Gov. Scott Walker fended off the recall effort against him more easily than expected on Tuesday, beating Democrat Tom Barrett yet again -- and by a slightly larger margin than he did in 2010. Walker prevailed 52 percent to 47 percent last cycle compared to 54 percent to 46 percent on Tuesday.
The overhyped election attracted intense interest from both sides in what is arguably the most polarized state in the country, deeply divided after Walker and state Republicans pushed through controversial labor reforms last spring. Tuesday’s turnout was impressive considering irregular timing of the race. Over 2.3 million people voted in the recall election, about 200,000 more than the 2010 midterm election, but less than the almost 3 million that voted in 2008. On paper, the Arizona special election should be, and likely is, razor tight. But good luck finding another special election with such unique circumstances as the vote to succeed former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who resigned in January after she was shot at a constituent event a year earlier.
Going into next Tuesday’s vote, observers from both sides say their candidate is slightly ahead-- but all private polling has the race within the margin of error between GOP nominee Jesse Kelly, who came within two points of Giffords in 2010, and Democrat Ron Barber, Giffords’ former district director who was also injured in the shooting that killed six and injured more than a dozen others. |
Jessica TaylorNon-partisan political analyst Archives
January 2013
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