On paper, Rep. John Barrow should have been a goner.
Over the years, the Georgia Democrat has enjoyed a bit of schadenfreude in proving Republicans wrong and winning even when the odds were stacked against him. This year was no exception.
Fortunately for Barrow, congressional races aren’t fought on paper, and Republicans learned once again that campaign and candidate quality matter no matter the partisan makeup of a district.
Over the years, the Georgia Democrat has enjoyed a bit of schadenfreude in proving Republicans wrong and winning even when the odds were stacked against him. This year was no exception.
Fortunately for Barrow, congressional races aren’t fought on paper, and Republicans learned once again that campaign and candidate quality matter no matter the partisan makeup of a district.
On November 6, Barrow rolled to a 7-point win over state Rep. Lee Anderson (R), even as Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won the district by nearly 12 points, according to number crunching from Daily Kos Elections.
Barrow survived the GOP wave of 2010, but he was barely a target that cycle. He won 57 percent of the vote against a challenger who spent only $250,000 to his $1.9 million, and outside Republican groups didn’t spend against him. Republicans ultimately saw this seat as one that got away and were determined to not make the same mistake again. And in 2011, Georgia Republican legislators had Barrow as their prime target as they drew their new congressional lines.
The congressman’s previous district certainly leaned Democratic but was still competitive. However, Republicans repeatedly failed to land strong challengers. President Obama received 55 percent of the vote and George W. Bush narrowly carried it in 2004 -- in part because of the vote from the more liberal city of Savannah.
Prior to the 2006 elections, state legislators removed Athens from the district, and in 2011 they spliced out Savannah, replacing it instead with all of Augusta. Suddenly, the 12th District became 12 points more Republican, and national Republicans made Barrow their sole target in the Peach State.
Democratic strategists maintained throughout the election cycle that they never doubted Barrow’s strength, largely because they knew the Southern congressman was willing to work for the win and do whatever it took.
While several of his fellow Blue Dogs who also survived 2010 headed for the exits when redistricting dealt them a tougher district, Barrow didn’t. The Democrat’s admirers point to his unyielding work ethic, constituent service, attention to his district, and truly moderate credentials in the House as reasons he has survived.
He didn’t vote for Cap and Trade, as did defeated Rep. Ben Chandler (D-Ky.). And he voted against the auto bailout and Obamacare. Those considerable breaks with his own party helped him inoculate himself against the standard Republican attack ads tying him to the president.
It didn’t help Republicans that they nominated an exceedingly weak candidate, to put it mildly.
A plainspoken farmer, Anderson had never been regarded as the sharpest legislator during his four years in the House, and few expected him to make it through the primary. Still, Anderson had promised strategists and officials he would work to change that image, improve his public speaking and study current events and policy briefing book. But it soon became apparent he wasn’t willing to put in the leg work and was privately described as stubborn and difficult to work with. As one Georgia Republican put it, Anderson “thought he could win the race by running around in his pickup truck.”
Following a primary debacle in which Anderson appeared dumbfounded when asked about the Federal Reserve, the candidate was kept practically hidden from view and from the media. Sources say he didn’t grasp even current foreign policy regarding the attack in Libya and made no effort to keep up with recent events in the news.
While Anderson was criticized in the press, and by Barrow’s team, for refusing to debate the congressman, Republicans acknowledge privately that it would have been a worse disaster if the two had faced off, giving Democrats clips of Barrow easily besting Anderson.
“Barrow’s not just good, he’s a pro player,” one GOP source told the Report. “He would have brutalized Lee Anderson.”
In the end, it wasn’t even close. Barrow rolled to an easier-than-expected reelection by seven points and over 19,000 votes, even as Romney won the district by over 31,000 votes -- a stunning crossover of over 28,700 votes that should have gone to the GOP column but didn’t.
Of the 19 counties in the district, Barrow won seven counties that Romney also carried, outpacing the Democratic presidential nominee by between 244 and 2,675 votes in each. While Obama did win Richmond County (Augusta), Barrow beat the president’s spread there by more than 2,600 votes. Some Republicans believe that African-American turnout there was higher than usual this year, as the county was electing its first black sheriff in a high-profile race.
Republicans had also hoped that Anderson would pick up a needed cushion in his home county of Columbia. But in the portion in the district, Anderson ran more than 4,500 votes behind Romney.
There wasn’t a lack of effort from Republican outside groups, many who were frustrated before and after the election by Anderson’s ineptitude, as even their own internal polling showed the race they should be winning slipping away. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent $1.7 million attacking Barrow early, but also had to use some of its final ad buys as contrast spots -- a sure sign the weak challenger needs a boost even as they try to hit the incumbent. YG Action Fund spent about $280,000, but didn’t spend in the final month, and the Congressional Leadership Fund spent $190,000. Overall, GOP outside spending against Barrow topped $3.5 million. Anderson spent only $915,000 against the incumbent.
Democratic outside spending accounted for $1.8 million, including $627,000 from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, $511,000 from House Majority PAC, and $310,000 from the Blue Dog-aligned Center Forward. But Barrow also got help from some typically GOP-aligned groups. The National Rifle Association kicked in funds and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce even went on air in October for Barrow, a move that miffed some GOP strategists.
Republicans vow Barrow won’t get away from them again, and are already looking ahead to 2014. But as the GOP learned all too well this year, to take down Barrow, they first have to get a viable candidate through the primary to even have a shot at the congressman, who’s demonstrated his crossover appeal time and again.
Anderson is unlikely to run again, but two of his primary challengers are both making moves to jump in and may be headed toward each other on a collision course that’s been fraught with animosity. Retired Navy Commander Wright McLeod and wealthy construction company owner Rick Allen have been locked in a legal battle since Allen narrowly edged out McLeod by 580 votes to make it into the runoff. Both are said to be making calls to gauge financial support.
McLeod was seen by many DC strategists as the best candidate who would appeal to the district’s dual rural and city constituencies. But his primary bid got many poor marks as he ran an amateur campaign, according to several sources, and he’d have to significantly retool and somewhat rebrand himself after a weak showing.
Allen was never able to shake his “country club” image, and while that may have been good for him in Augusta, he never earned the trust of voters in the rural counties. And he rubbed several in the party the wrong way after refusing to endorse Anderson following the runoff, which he lost by just 159 votes.
Several Republicans reluctantly admit that they initially found too much solace in the ruby red numbers post-redistricting. After all, John McCain won this district with 56 percent of the vote and it was one of the most Republican districts represented by a Democrat in Congress.
Early on, even though Republicans knew they were going to be saddled with a second or third rate candidate, they thought the “R” after his name would still trump Barrow’s “D,” and they continued to underestimate the political survivor.
Chatter for Republicans about working to get the one that got away started essentially on November 7th. While Republicans are optimistic about 2014 -- hoping for a decreased African American turnout and knowing the president’s party typically loses seats in a 6-year midterm -- Democrats point out that argument may have more legs if Barrow had won by a slim margin.
Strategists on both sides of the aisle praised Barrow’s admaker, Steve Murphy of Murphy Vogel Reilly Askew. His work on the Blue Dog Democrat’s creative, memorable ads was hailed by Republicans and Democrats as some of the best this cycle.
One spot had Barrow showing off two guns -- a “little Smith and Wesson” his grandfather used to help stop a lynching, and his father’s rifle. “These are my guns now, and ain’t nobody gonna take ‘em away,” Barrow says at the end. Other ads highlighted Barrow’s votes against wasteful spending and hit Anderson for not debating.
Republicans tried to tie Barrow to Obama, who did offer Barrrow an endorsement when he found himself in prior primary troubles, but their standard ads fell flat against the zingier spots.
Many Republicans are already hoping the man who could have been their best challenger in 2012, state Senate Pro Tem Tommie Williams, reconsiders and will run this time. But Williams just stepped down from his Senate leadership post, and some speculate that’s because he’d like to retreat from politics and spend time with his young family, some of the same concerns that reportedly kept him out of the 12th District contest this time.
There’s a slight question as to whether Barrow runs again. Some Republicans, perhaps wishfully, hope he might seek a presidential appointment or run for governor or Senate. Most Georgia sources believe a run for governor is out of the cards, and Senate could be a long-shot, but still more realistic than challenging Gov. Nathan Deal (R).
Barrow and Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) have a good relationship, but since the junior senator looks increasingly likely to face a primary challenge, Barrow may have to consider his options. In any case, don’t be surprised to at least hear Barrow’s name thrown out there in the coming year. Most Democrats still expect Barrow to run for re-election to Congress.
If Barrow does run for his House seat again in 2014, Republicans have at least learned the hard lesson that it’s not going to be easy to defeat him, even if they do finally find a stellar candidate. A post-election cartoon in the Savannah Morning News perhaps put it best, showing Barrow dumping Anderson out of a wheelbarrow and telling the Republican, “Next time bring kryptonite.”
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/georgia-12-barrow-lives-to-fight-another-day
Barrow survived the GOP wave of 2010, but he was barely a target that cycle. He won 57 percent of the vote against a challenger who spent only $250,000 to his $1.9 million, and outside Republican groups didn’t spend against him. Republicans ultimately saw this seat as one that got away and were determined to not make the same mistake again. And in 2011, Georgia Republican legislators had Barrow as their prime target as they drew their new congressional lines.
The congressman’s previous district certainly leaned Democratic but was still competitive. However, Republicans repeatedly failed to land strong challengers. President Obama received 55 percent of the vote and George W. Bush narrowly carried it in 2004 -- in part because of the vote from the more liberal city of Savannah.
Prior to the 2006 elections, state legislators removed Athens from the district, and in 2011 they spliced out Savannah, replacing it instead with all of Augusta. Suddenly, the 12th District became 12 points more Republican, and national Republicans made Barrow their sole target in the Peach State.
Democratic strategists maintained throughout the election cycle that they never doubted Barrow’s strength, largely because they knew the Southern congressman was willing to work for the win and do whatever it took.
While several of his fellow Blue Dogs who also survived 2010 headed for the exits when redistricting dealt them a tougher district, Barrow didn’t. The Democrat’s admirers point to his unyielding work ethic, constituent service, attention to his district, and truly moderate credentials in the House as reasons he has survived.
He didn’t vote for Cap and Trade, as did defeated Rep. Ben Chandler (D-Ky.). And he voted against the auto bailout and Obamacare. Those considerable breaks with his own party helped him inoculate himself against the standard Republican attack ads tying him to the president.
It didn’t help Republicans that they nominated an exceedingly weak candidate, to put it mildly.
A plainspoken farmer, Anderson had never been regarded as the sharpest legislator during his four years in the House, and few expected him to make it through the primary. Still, Anderson had promised strategists and officials he would work to change that image, improve his public speaking and study current events and policy briefing book. But it soon became apparent he wasn’t willing to put in the leg work and was privately described as stubborn and difficult to work with. As one Georgia Republican put it, Anderson “thought he could win the race by running around in his pickup truck.”
Following a primary debacle in which Anderson appeared dumbfounded when asked about the Federal Reserve, the candidate was kept practically hidden from view and from the media. Sources say he didn’t grasp even current foreign policy regarding the attack in Libya and made no effort to keep up with recent events in the news.
While Anderson was criticized in the press, and by Barrow’s team, for refusing to debate the congressman, Republicans acknowledge privately that it would have been a worse disaster if the two had faced off, giving Democrats clips of Barrow easily besting Anderson.
“Barrow’s not just good, he’s a pro player,” one GOP source told the Report. “He would have brutalized Lee Anderson.”
In the end, it wasn’t even close. Barrow rolled to an easier-than-expected reelection by seven points and over 19,000 votes, even as Romney won the district by over 31,000 votes -- a stunning crossover of over 28,700 votes that should have gone to the GOP column but didn’t.
Of the 19 counties in the district, Barrow won seven counties that Romney also carried, outpacing the Democratic presidential nominee by between 244 and 2,675 votes in each. While Obama did win Richmond County (Augusta), Barrow beat the president’s spread there by more than 2,600 votes. Some Republicans believe that African-American turnout there was higher than usual this year, as the county was electing its first black sheriff in a high-profile race.
Republicans had also hoped that Anderson would pick up a needed cushion in his home county of Columbia. But in the portion in the district, Anderson ran more than 4,500 votes behind Romney.
There wasn’t a lack of effort from Republican outside groups, many who were frustrated before and after the election by Anderson’s ineptitude, as even their own internal polling showed the race they should be winning slipping away. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent $1.7 million attacking Barrow early, but also had to use some of its final ad buys as contrast spots -- a sure sign the weak challenger needs a boost even as they try to hit the incumbent. YG Action Fund spent about $280,000, but didn’t spend in the final month, and the Congressional Leadership Fund spent $190,000. Overall, GOP outside spending against Barrow topped $3.5 million. Anderson spent only $915,000 against the incumbent.
Democratic outside spending accounted for $1.8 million, including $627,000 from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, $511,000 from House Majority PAC, and $310,000 from the Blue Dog-aligned Center Forward. But Barrow also got help from some typically GOP-aligned groups. The National Rifle Association kicked in funds and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce even went on air in October for Barrow, a move that miffed some GOP strategists.
Republicans vow Barrow won’t get away from them again, and are already looking ahead to 2014. But as the GOP learned all too well this year, to take down Barrow, they first have to get a viable candidate through the primary to even have a shot at the congressman, who’s demonstrated his crossover appeal time and again.
Anderson is unlikely to run again, but two of his primary challengers are both making moves to jump in and may be headed toward each other on a collision course that’s been fraught with animosity. Retired Navy Commander Wright McLeod and wealthy construction company owner Rick Allen have been locked in a legal battle since Allen narrowly edged out McLeod by 580 votes to make it into the runoff. Both are said to be making calls to gauge financial support.
McLeod was seen by many DC strategists as the best candidate who would appeal to the district’s dual rural and city constituencies. But his primary bid got many poor marks as he ran an amateur campaign, according to several sources, and he’d have to significantly retool and somewhat rebrand himself after a weak showing.
Allen was never able to shake his “country club” image, and while that may have been good for him in Augusta, he never earned the trust of voters in the rural counties. And he rubbed several in the party the wrong way after refusing to endorse Anderson following the runoff, which he lost by just 159 votes.
Several Republicans reluctantly admit that they initially found too much solace in the ruby red numbers post-redistricting. After all, John McCain won this district with 56 percent of the vote and it was one of the most Republican districts represented by a Democrat in Congress.
Early on, even though Republicans knew they were going to be saddled with a second or third rate candidate, they thought the “R” after his name would still trump Barrow’s “D,” and they continued to underestimate the political survivor.
Chatter for Republicans about working to get the one that got away started essentially on November 7th. While Republicans are optimistic about 2014 -- hoping for a decreased African American turnout and knowing the president’s party typically loses seats in a 6-year midterm -- Democrats point out that argument may have more legs if Barrow had won by a slim margin.
Strategists on both sides of the aisle praised Barrow’s admaker, Steve Murphy of Murphy Vogel Reilly Askew. His work on the Blue Dog Democrat’s creative, memorable ads was hailed by Republicans and Democrats as some of the best this cycle.
One spot had Barrow showing off two guns -- a “little Smith and Wesson” his grandfather used to help stop a lynching, and his father’s rifle. “These are my guns now, and ain’t nobody gonna take ‘em away,” Barrow says at the end. Other ads highlighted Barrow’s votes against wasteful spending and hit Anderson for not debating.
Republicans tried to tie Barrow to Obama, who did offer Barrrow an endorsement when he found himself in prior primary troubles, but their standard ads fell flat against the zingier spots.
Many Republicans are already hoping the man who could have been their best challenger in 2012, state Senate Pro Tem Tommie Williams, reconsiders and will run this time. But Williams just stepped down from his Senate leadership post, and some speculate that’s because he’d like to retreat from politics and spend time with his young family, some of the same concerns that reportedly kept him out of the 12th District contest this time.
There’s a slight question as to whether Barrow runs again. Some Republicans, perhaps wishfully, hope he might seek a presidential appointment or run for governor or Senate. Most Georgia sources believe a run for governor is out of the cards, and Senate could be a long-shot, but still more realistic than challenging Gov. Nathan Deal (R).
Barrow and Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) have a good relationship, but since the junior senator looks increasingly likely to face a primary challenge, Barrow may have to consider his options. In any case, don’t be surprised to at least hear Barrow’s name thrown out there in the coming year. Most Democrats still expect Barrow to run for re-election to Congress.
If Barrow does run for his House seat again in 2014, Republicans have at least learned the hard lesson that it’s not going to be easy to defeat him, even if they do finally find a stellar candidate. A post-election cartoon in the Savannah Morning News perhaps put it best, showing Barrow dumping Anderson out of a wheelbarrow and telling the Republican, “Next time bring kryptonite.”
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/georgia-12-barrow-lives-to-fight-another-day