Reality television shows don’t have as colorful a cast of characters as the upcoming special election in Illinois’s 2nd District.
Vying for the chance to succeed the mired-in-scandal former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., the field includes his predecessor, who resigned in the wake of a statutory rape charge, an establishment-favorite state senator who was arrested last week after trying to bring a gun through airport security, a former NFL linebacker, and another former congresswoman who lagged badly in her ill-fated primary challenge to Jackson earlier this year.
But would you expect any less from Chicago politics?
Vying for the chance to succeed the mired-in-scandal former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., the field includes his predecessor, who resigned in the wake of a statutory rape charge, an establishment-favorite state senator who was arrested last week after trying to bring a gun through airport security, a former NFL linebacker, and another former congresswoman who lagged badly in her ill-fated primary challenge to Jackson earlier this year.
But would you expect any less from Chicago politics?
With several weeks to go until the Christmas Eve filing deadline, at least eight Democrats have announced their candidacies, and several could still jump in the race. Also, Chicago Democratic leaders will meet this Saturday, December 15, to decide whether to slate a candidate as their preferred choice. The primary is set for February 26, 2013, with the general election to follow on April 9.
As of now, the list of Democratic contenders includes former Rep. Mel Reynolds, former Rep. Debbie Halvorson, state Sen. Donne Trotter, former state Rep. Robin Kelly, state Sen. Toi Hutchinson, state Sen.-elect and former NFL player Napoleon Harris, and Chicago Alderman Anthony Beale.
One Chicago politico who passed on the race was Chicago Alderman Will Burns, a close ally of the Obama White House. Many thought Burns would have been the frontrunner if he jumped into the contest. Two of Jackson’s family members had been rumored as potential successors, but his wife, Alderwoman Sandi Jackson, announced she wouldn’t be a candidate, and his brother, Jonathan, seems disinclined to run. If the investigation looming into the former congressman continues, Jonathan Jackson’s bid wouldn’t likely get far off the ground anyway.
Without a heavyweight in the race who is able to clear the field, the relatively quiet infighting -- so far-- has begun.
Lay of the Land
The 2nd District was redrawn significantly during this year’s redistricting, giving Jackson just over 20 percent new territory, according to number crunching from Daily Kos Elections. While still anchored in the South Side of Chicago, this redrawn district took in much more of the southern suburbs after redistricting, now stretching through Chicago Heights and Crete, down past Bourbonnais to just past Kankakee, which was in the old 11th District.
Redistricting also brought down the district’s African-American population. While the district had previously been nearly 69 percent black, it’s now only 54 percent and just barely over the bench mark for a majority-minority district.
With over 20 percent of her old district being drawn into the new 2nd District and an influx of more white voters, Halvorson saw a path back to Congress. After losing in 2010 to Republican Adam Kinzinger in the GOP wave, she decided to primary Jackson in 2012.
Halvorson’s decision to challenge Jackson may have also been motivated, in part, by revenge. The two Democrats had a long feud dating back to Halvorson’s days in the state Legislature, and she seized on Jackson’s ethics investigations over his role in the appointment of a successor to President Obama in the Senate.
But Halvorson raised only $150,000 for the primary -- a paltry sum for a former state Senate majority leader and former member of Congress. Unsurprisingly, in the end, it wasn’t even close, and Jackson prevailed with 71 percent to Halvorson’s 29 percent.
That was Jackson’s high point. In June, the eight-term congressman disappeared from Capitol Hill, and his office finally said Jackson was being treated at the Mayo Clinic for bipolar disorder and depression. As the mystery around his absence deepened, there were also reports that Jackson was being investigated for misuse of campaign funds.
None of that mattered to voters on Election Day, though. Despite not campaigning, Jackson won with 63 percent of the vote -- his lowest re-election percentage ever, but evidence that winning the Democratic nomination in the February special primary is tantamount to winning the seat.
Jackson’s victory would be short-lived, as legal problems continued to mount and he remained mysteriously absent. Just two weeks after being re-elected, Jackson submitted his resignation on November 21.
The Field
The one thing that Halvorson has at the start of the race is name identification. But Democrats on the ground argue that her 2012 campaign against Jackson was less than inspiring. Several sources described it as highly disorganized, lacking focus and largely motivated by her longtime feud with Jackson.
With Halvorson in the mix, it’s impossible to ignore the issue of race. While several sources said they’re skeptical that she can win the primary simply due to a large number of African-American candidates splitting the black vote, all admit she has to be seen as the tenuous initial frontrunner, and has a path to victory, given her name ID and the virtual obscurity of many of the other candidates.
Adding a very Chicago-style twist to the campaign is that the two women who make up the second tier of candidates both have long ties to Halvorson. Hutchinson served as Halvorson’s chief of staff in the Illinois Senate and was appointed to succeed her in the Legislature when Halvorson was elected to Congress in 2008.
Kelly, too, is close to Hutchinson and Halvorson. Both Kelly and Halvorson seem to believe that Hutchison is not willing to wait her turn in line. Hutchinson, is just 39, while Kelly is 56 and Halvorson is 54.
A former state representative, Kelly was the Democratic nominee for state treasurer in 2010, but lost 45.2 percent to 49.7 percent. Several sources say that she ran a very lackluster race then, but they now praise the job she’s done since becoming the Cook County Chief Administrative Officer, though she just resigned to focus on the congressional race.
Harris could be the wildcard in the group. No one is exactly sure what type of electoral base he could have or cut into, but he has the potential to self-fund. And Harris was just elected to the state Senate, and hasn’t even been sworn in yet in Springfield, raising many local eyebrows that he’s already angling for a promotion. A former Northwestern standout who later was drafted by the Oakland Raiders and played for the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs, Harris now owns two local pizza franchises. He put over $200,000 of his own money into his state senate race this past November. This isn’t a market where money can buy a ton of TV time, but if he can parlay that into a strong ground campaign, it could make a difference.
The most prominent candidate from the city, Trotter was emerging as the choice of the city’s powerful Democratic machine, and was the favorite to be slated as their choice, if they chose to designate a candidate. If not, it was expected he had enough votes to block someone else from being slated.
But two weeks ago, Trotter was arrested on felony gun charges trying to take a loaded firearm through security at O’Hare Airport. Trotter said he’d forgotten the gun was in his bag and had just come from a part-time security job -- an odd moonlighting gig for such a longtime state lawmaker. Prior to the incident, sources noted the 20-year legislative veteran was well-liked in Springfield but never had much of a base in Chicago. While he had the backing of the city’s political machine, the voters were very much another matter. Being slated could have helped with older voters, but it would not have automatically made him the frontrunner.
Beale, who’s been on the city council since 1999, is also running. While he was an early ally of Jackson’s, the two have since parted ways.
Reynolds is the gadfly of the group. While he’ll certainly get a chunk of votes, few observers take his candidacy seriously and note he’s significantly fallen from grace since he resigned from Congress in 1995 despite trying to rehabilitate himself. Reynolds was convicted of having sex with an underage campaign worker, along with other sex-related charges, and later was convicted on other campaign finance charges. President Bill Clinton commuted his sentence in 2001.
There’s still time for other candidates to still join the crowded field, too.
How It Plays Out
Several Chicago political operatives have all underscored that as of mid-December, this field was very unsettled and highly fluid. Fundraising will be key, but more importantly the ability to turn that fundraising success into a credible ground game.
One of the immediate pressing questions will be answered tomorrow: will the Cook County Democrats slate a preferred candidate? Trotter had been the most probable pick, if they even chose to designate a singular candidate. But his arrest has thrown that into doubt, even though local officials and politicos have largely been mum on his arrest.
But that vote comes only from Cook County. The district is still 60 percent suburban, and those voters outside the city may show up in greater numbers, some strategists believe.
African American women have been the most reliable votes in low-turnout special elections in districts like this one, which is another reason why most believe the three women in the running have the best shot, and why several believe Hutchinson or Kelly can prevail if they can move past Halvorson’s name advantage.
Some strategists believe black women could make up as high as 58 or 59 percent of the vote, and note that especially given the shenanigans that have plagued this district, some want a woman who they don’t see as controversial.
How Trotter’s arrest plays out has yet to be seen, too. While criminal charges have certainly never disqualified someone from office in Chicago, gun control is a sensitive issue in the crime-plagued city, and voters may have a very different reaction to his weapons charges than ward bosses do.
EMILY’s List support could be crucial to one of the trio of women in the race, but the pro-choice women’s group, so far, has stayed on the sidelines. Typically, if there is more than one viable woman who fits with their priorities in a primary, they won’t get involved unless there’s a chance a male candidate could prevail over a viable woman without their assistance. But more than one local strategist has noted that if the group does get behind a candidate, that would elevate their profile, both organizationally and financially.
Many strategists point to the 2009 special election in the neighboring 5th District as a model of how such abbreviated yet spirited contests have recently played out. When then-Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D) resigned to become President Obama’s chief of staff, it was state Sen. John Fritchey who had the city machine support, while state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz had EMILY’s LIST’s backing in the similarly-crowded race. But Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley had the better organization and turnout machine, and he won with 22 percent and a narrow plurality.
Typically, the local press would be enamored with an open seat race with such dramatic dynamics. But the frenzy that’s eaten up most of the pages and airwaves is former Mayor Richard Daley’s nephew being charged in a murder. Readers are fascinated with the salacious story, several local sources noted, and the 2nd District race is, for now, taking a definite backseat.
The Bottom Line
There isn’t much time for such a wide and varied field to marshal resources to put together robust district-wide campaigns. But if one hopeful is able to put together a robust organization, he or she certainly could become the frontrunner.
If either Richardson or Kelly can put together strong ground campaigns and mobilize their supporters, they may have the best chance. But that also required Halvorson to put together another inept organization, and their better team to override her name ID advantage. For now, Halvorson may be the best positioned, but few expect, and most hope, it won’t remain that way. Even if this seat has seen a decline in its African American population, it still remains a majority-minority seat.
With a month and a half to go before voting starts, there are more questions than answers as this contest is still taking shape.
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/illinois-2-deep-dish-of-dramatic-democrats
As of now, the list of Democratic contenders includes former Rep. Mel Reynolds, former Rep. Debbie Halvorson, state Sen. Donne Trotter, former state Rep. Robin Kelly, state Sen. Toi Hutchinson, state Sen.-elect and former NFL player Napoleon Harris, and Chicago Alderman Anthony Beale.
One Chicago politico who passed on the race was Chicago Alderman Will Burns, a close ally of the Obama White House. Many thought Burns would have been the frontrunner if he jumped into the contest. Two of Jackson’s family members had been rumored as potential successors, but his wife, Alderwoman Sandi Jackson, announced she wouldn’t be a candidate, and his brother, Jonathan, seems disinclined to run. If the investigation looming into the former congressman continues, Jonathan Jackson’s bid wouldn’t likely get far off the ground anyway.
Without a heavyweight in the race who is able to clear the field, the relatively quiet infighting -- so far-- has begun.
Lay of the Land
The 2nd District was redrawn significantly during this year’s redistricting, giving Jackson just over 20 percent new territory, according to number crunching from Daily Kos Elections. While still anchored in the South Side of Chicago, this redrawn district took in much more of the southern suburbs after redistricting, now stretching through Chicago Heights and Crete, down past Bourbonnais to just past Kankakee, which was in the old 11th District.
Redistricting also brought down the district’s African-American population. While the district had previously been nearly 69 percent black, it’s now only 54 percent and just barely over the bench mark for a majority-minority district.
With over 20 percent of her old district being drawn into the new 2nd District and an influx of more white voters, Halvorson saw a path back to Congress. After losing in 2010 to Republican Adam Kinzinger in the GOP wave, she decided to primary Jackson in 2012.
Halvorson’s decision to challenge Jackson may have also been motivated, in part, by revenge. The two Democrats had a long feud dating back to Halvorson’s days in the state Legislature, and she seized on Jackson’s ethics investigations over his role in the appointment of a successor to President Obama in the Senate.
But Halvorson raised only $150,000 for the primary -- a paltry sum for a former state Senate majority leader and former member of Congress. Unsurprisingly, in the end, it wasn’t even close, and Jackson prevailed with 71 percent to Halvorson’s 29 percent.
That was Jackson’s high point. In June, the eight-term congressman disappeared from Capitol Hill, and his office finally said Jackson was being treated at the Mayo Clinic for bipolar disorder and depression. As the mystery around his absence deepened, there were also reports that Jackson was being investigated for misuse of campaign funds.
None of that mattered to voters on Election Day, though. Despite not campaigning, Jackson won with 63 percent of the vote -- his lowest re-election percentage ever, but evidence that winning the Democratic nomination in the February special primary is tantamount to winning the seat.
Jackson’s victory would be short-lived, as legal problems continued to mount and he remained mysteriously absent. Just two weeks after being re-elected, Jackson submitted his resignation on November 21.
The Field
The one thing that Halvorson has at the start of the race is name identification. But Democrats on the ground argue that her 2012 campaign against Jackson was less than inspiring. Several sources described it as highly disorganized, lacking focus and largely motivated by her longtime feud with Jackson.
With Halvorson in the mix, it’s impossible to ignore the issue of race. While several sources said they’re skeptical that she can win the primary simply due to a large number of African-American candidates splitting the black vote, all admit she has to be seen as the tenuous initial frontrunner, and has a path to victory, given her name ID and the virtual obscurity of many of the other candidates.
Adding a very Chicago-style twist to the campaign is that the two women who make up the second tier of candidates both have long ties to Halvorson. Hutchinson served as Halvorson’s chief of staff in the Illinois Senate and was appointed to succeed her in the Legislature when Halvorson was elected to Congress in 2008.
Kelly, too, is close to Hutchinson and Halvorson. Both Kelly and Halvorson seem to believe that Hutchison is not willing to wait her turn in line. Hutchinson, is just 39, while Kelly is 56 and Halvorson is 54.
A former state representative, Kelly was the Democratic nominee for state treasurer in 2010, but lost 45.2 percent to 49.7 percent. Several sources say that she ran a very lackluster race then, but they now praise the job she’s done since becoming the Cook County Chief Administrative Officer, though she just resigned to focus on the congressional race.
Harris could be the wildcard in the group. No one is exactly sure what type of electoral base he could have or cut into, but he has the potential to self-fund. And Harris was just elected to the state Senate, and hasn’t even been sworn in yet in Springfield, raising many local eyebrows that he’s already angling for a promotion. A former Northwestern standout who later was drafted by the Oakland Raiders and played for the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs, Harris now owns two local pizza franchises. He put over $200,000 of his own money into his state senate race this past November. This isn’t a market where money can buy a ton of TV time, but if he can parlay that into a strong ground campaign, it could make a difference.
The most prominent candidate from the city, Trotter was emerging as the choice of the city’s powerful Democratic machine, and was the favorite to be slated as their choice, if they chose to designate a candidate. If not, it was expected he had enough votes to block someone else from being slated.
But two weeks ago, Trotter was arrested on felony gun charges trying to take a loaded firearm through security at O’Hare Airport. Trotter said he’d forgotten the gun was in his bag and had just come from a part-time security job -- an odd moonlighting gig for such a longtime state lawmaker. Prior to the incident, sources noted the 20-year legislative veteran was well-liked in Springfield but never had much of a base in Chicago. While he had the backing of the city’s political machine, the voters were very much another matter. Being slated could have helped with older voters, but it would not have automatically made him the frontrunner.
Beale, who’s been on the city council since 1999, is also running. While he was an early ally of Jackson’s, the two have since parted ways.
Reynolds is the gadfly of the group. While he’ll certainly get a chunk of votes, few observers take his candidacy seriously and note he’s significantly fallen from grace since he resigned from Congress in 1995 despite trying to rehabilitate himself. Reynolds was convicted of having sex with an underage campaign worker, along with other sex-related charges, and later was convicted on other campaign finance charges. President Bill Clinton commuted his sentence in 2001.
There’s still time for other candidates to still join the crowded field, too.
How It Plays Out
Several Chicago political operatives have all underscored that as of mid-December, this field was very unsettled and highly fluid. Fundraising will be key, but more importantly the ability to turn that fundraising success into a credible ground game.
One of the immediate pressing questions will be answered tomorrow: will the Cook County Democrats slate a preferred candidate? Trotter had been the most probable pick, if they even chose to designate a singular candidate. But his arrest has thrown that into doubt, even though local officials and politicos have largely been mum on his arrest.
But that vote comes only from Cook County. The district is still 60 percent suburban, and those voters outside the city may show up in greater numbers, some strategists believe.
African American women have been the most reliable votes in low-turnout special elections in districts like this one, which is another reason why most believe the three women in the running have the best shot, and why several believe Hutchinson or Kelly can prevail if they can move past Halvorson’s name advantage.
Some strategists believe black women could make up as high as 58 or 59 percent of the vote, and note that especially given the shenanigans that have plagued this district, some want a woman who they don’t see as controversial.
How Trotter’s arrest plays out has yet to be seen, too. While criminal charges have certainly never disqualified someone from office in Chicago, gun control is a sensitive issue in the crime-plagued city, and voters may have a very different reaction to his weapons charges than ward bosses do.
EMILY’s List support could be crucial to one of the trio of women in the race, but the pro-choice women’s group, so far, has stayed on the sidelines. Typically, if there is more than one viable woman who fits with their priorities in a primary, they won’t get involved unless there’s a chance a male candidate could prevail over a viable woman without their assistance. But more than one local strategist has noted that if the group does get behind a candidate, that would elevate their profile, both organizationally and financially.
Many strategists point to the 2009 special election in the neighboring 5th District as a model of how such abbreviated yet spirited contests have recently played out. When then-Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D) resigned to become President Obama’s chief of staff, it was state Sen. John Fritchey who had the city machine support, while state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz had EMILY’s LIST’s backing in the similarly-crowded race. But Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley had the better organization and turnout machine, and he won with 22 percent and a narrow plurality.
Typically, the local press would be enamored with an open seat race with such dramatic dynamics. But the frenzy that’s eaten up most of the pages and airwaves is former Mayor Richard Daley’s nephew being charged in a murder. Readers are fascinated with the salacious story, several local sources noted, and the 2nd District race is, for now, taking a definite backseat.
The Bottom Line
There isn’t much time for such a wide and varied field to marshal resources to put together robust district-wide campaigns. But if one hopeful is able to put together a robust organization, he or she certainly could become the frontrunner.
If either Richardson or Kelly can put together strong ground campaigns and mobilize their supporters, they may have the best chance. But that also required Halvorson to put together another inept organization, and their better team to override her name ID advantage. For now, Halvorson may be the best positioned, but few expect, and most hope, it won’t remain that way. Even if this seat has seen a decline in its African American population, it still remains a majority-minority seat.
With a month and a half to go before voting starts, there are more questions than answers as this contest is still taking shape.
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/illinois-2-deep-dish-of-dramatic-democrats