The special election to succeed disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., was supposed to be a safe affair for Democrats. But President Obama’s rising unpopularity in a district he won easily in 2008 is giving Republicans a chance to make the contest closer than it should be. Even if Republican Bob Turner pulls close to Democrat David Weprin, that could serve as an early warning about 2012 for Democrats and Obama.
The election in Nevada’s 2nd District, also on September 13, was expected to be the better bellwether for 2012. In that Reno district, Obama and his 2008 Republican presidential rival, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, fought to a near-tie. Instead, it’s the Queens- and Brooklyn-based district where the president won by 11 points and where Democrats hold a 133,000-voter edge in registration that’s shaping up as the tighter of the two races.
The election in Nevada’s 2nd District, also on September 13, was expected to be the better bellwether for 2012. In that Reno district, Obama and his 2008 Republican presidential rival, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, fought to a near-tie. Instead, it’s the Queens- and Brooklyn-based district where the president won by 11 points and where Democrats hold a 133,000-voter edge in registration that’s shaping up as the tighter of the two races.
A Siena Research Institute poll in early August showed Weprin, a state Assembly member, with a slim 6-point lead over Turner, a retired cable-TV executive who challenged Weiner in 2010 and got 40 percent of the vote.
But the most telling statistic in that survey was Obama’s upside-down ratings—52 percent in the district viewed him unfavorably, and only 45 percent viewed him favorably. Worse, 42 percent of Democrats in that poll had an unfavorable view of the president. Turner’s internal polling picked up the same discontent: an 8-point gap between the two candidates and a 50 percent disapproval rating for Obama, according to the survey by GOP pollster John McLaughlin.
Even some Democratic strategists are beginning to sense a recoil from Obama. “The question is, could a Democrat lose here? Possibly. Is it likely? Don’t hock the house on it, but it all depends on who turns out,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime New York Democratic consultant who has worked for Weprin in past races. “It may be, with the intensity of dislike for the president, that more people who don’t like him turn out than people who do. And if that’s the case, it could be an upset.”
Special-election upsets aren’t always predictors of future electoral victory. Democrats had successes in New York and Pennsylvania just ahead of their drubbing in the 2010 midterms. And in several recent Empire State contests that Democrats won, including the 2009 race in the 23rd District and this May’s contest in the 26th District, Republicans were handicapped in part by third-party candidates.
Still, Republicans seem to be capitalizing on a deepening antipathy toward Obama. One early breakthrough was winning support from one of New York City’s most revered Democrats: former Mayor Ed Koch, whose popularity in the district is at 70 percent two decades after he left office. In July, Koch crossed party lines to back Turner, saying he wanted to send a message to the administration that he disagreed with Obama’s policies on Israel.
Turner took that point and ran with it, hammering Weprin, an Orthodox Jew. Although Weprin has continued to emphasize that he disagrees with the president on Israel, Turner upped the ante with a controversial TV ad over the proposed mosque near Ground Zero that featured images of the crumbling Twin Towers. Now Weprin’s campaign has seized on comments Turner made questioning whether the 9/11 Health and Compensation Act was too broad, but Turner says he supports the bill that passed.
In an interview with National Journal, Turner said he sensed a distinct shift in the district’s mood since he last ran, not just on Israel but also on the economy. “The level of confidence is down, and I believe that comes from the top,” he said. “This is not a Reaganesque approach to thinking on the part of Obama.”
Republicans are shocked that the district might even be in play. “It should not happen,” said Brendan Quinn, a former executive director of the state GOP. “This is such an overwhelmingly Democrat district—yes, there are parts of it that are more of a Reagan Democrat or conservative Democrat—but there’s still no way we should be having this conversation.”
Weprin and his allies admit that there is anger toward Washington, but they’re betting that the district’s voters will place the blame not on Obama but on Republicans and particularly on the tea party. “It’s easy for someone to lay blame at the top, but in the end voters are more frustrated with the Republicans in Congress and the tea party,” said Weprin spokeswoman Elizabeth Kerr. “Voters know their budget plan will decimate Medicare and Social Security, and the tax policies Bob Turner supports make it certain that those programs would be cut.”
Despite the potential for an upset, national Republican groups are showing only tepid interest. Outside GOP groups pumped more than $800,000 into the Nevada race, solidifying the Republican candidate there. But the National Republican Congressional Committee has sent only a five-figure sum to boost Turner’s coffers, while the Republican National Committee has paid for phone banking. Democrats aren’t fully sounding the alarm either, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has sent Weprin only $3,000 in coordinated funds.
Still, even a close margin could portend trouble for the president among his base next year. “By moving the needle here, even to a victory, we are showing that with a united party … in this kind of atmosphere, where we have the right policy, and with the right candidate, we can be successful even in a very Democratic New York City district,” said New York GOP Chairman Edward Cox. “It will have large implications for 2012.”
This article appeared in the Saturday, September 3, 2011 edition of National Journal.
http://nationaljournal.com/member/magazine/anthony-weiner-s-seat-could-be-in-play-in-new-york-special-election-20110901
But the most telling statistic in that survey was Obama’s upside-down ratings—52 percent in the district viewed him unfavorably, and only 45 percent viewed him favorably. Worse, 42 percent of Democrats in that poll had an unfavorable view of the president. Turner’s internal polling picked up the same discontent: an 8-point gap between the two candidates and a 50 percent disapproval rating for Obama, according to the survey by GOP pollster John McLaughlin.
Even some Democratic strategists are beginning to sense a recoil from Obama. “The question is, could a Democrat lose here? Possibly. Is it likely? Don’t hock the house on it, but it all depends on who turns out,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime New York Democratic consultant who has worked for Weprin in past races. “It may be, with the intensity of dislike for the president, that more people who don’t like him turn out than people who do. And if that’s the case, it could be an upset.”
Special-election upsets aren’t always predictors of future electoral victory. Democrats had successes in New York and Pennsylvania just ahead of their drubbing in the 2010 midterms. And in several recent Empire State contests that Democrats won, including the 2009 race in the 23rd District and this May’s contest in the 26th District, Republicans were handicapped in part by third-party candidates.
Still, Republicans seem to be capitalizing on a deepening antipathy toward Obama. One early breakthrough was winning support from one of New York City’s most revered Democrats: former Mayor Ed Koch, whose popularity in the district is at 70 percent two decades after he left office. In July, Koch crossed party lines to back Turner, saying he wanted to send a message to the administration that he disagreed with Obama’s policies on Israel.
Turner took that point and ran with it, hammering Weprin, an Orthodox Jew. Although Weprin has continued to emphasize that he disagrees with the president on Israel, Turner upped the ante with a controversial TV ad over the proposed mosque near Ground Zero that featured images of the crumbling Twin Towers. Now Weprin’s campaign has seized on comments Turner made questioning whether the 9/11 Health and Compensation Act was too broad, but Turner says he supports the bill that passed.
In an interview with National Journal, Turner said he sensed a distinct shift in the district’s mood since he last ran, not just on Israel but also on the economy. “The level of confidence is down, and I believe that comes from the top,” he said. “This is not a Reaganesque approach to thinking on the part of Obama.”
Republicans are shocked that the district might even be in play. “It should not happen,” said Brendan Quinn, a former executive director of the state GOP. “This is such an overwhelmingly Democrat district—yes, there are parts of it that are more of a Reagan Democrat or conservative Democrat—but there’s still no way we should be having this conversation.”
Weprin and his allies admit that there is anger toward Washington, but they’re betting that the district’s voters will place the blame not on Obama but on Republicans and particularly on the tea party. “It’s easy for someone to lay blame at the top, but in the end voters are more frustrated with the Republicans in Congress and the tea party,” said Weprin spokeswoman Elizabeth Kerr. “Voters know their budget plan will decimate Medicare and Social Security, and the tax policies Bob Turner supports make it certain that those programs would be cut.”
Despite the potential for an upset, national Republican groups are showing only tepid interest. Outside GOP groups pumped more than $800,000 into the Nevada race, solidifying the Republican candidate there. But the National Republican Congressional Committee has sent only a five-figure sum to boost Turner’s coffers, while the Republican National Committee has paid for phone banking. Democrats aren’t fully sounding the alarm either, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has sent Weprin only $3,000 in coordinated funds.
Still, even a close margin could portend trouble for the president among his base next year. “By moving the needle here, even to a victory, we are showing that with a united party … in this kind of atmosphere, where we have the right policy, and with the right candidate, we can be successful even in a very Democratic New York City district,” said New York GOP Chairman Edward Cox. “It will have large implications for 2012.”
This article appeared in the Saturday, September 3, 2011 edition of National Journal.
http://nationaljournal.com/member/magazine/anthony-weiner-s-seat-could-be-in-play-in-new-york-special-election-20110901