By Jessica Taylor and Kasie Hunt
Republicans have won at least 239 House seats as of Wednesday afternoon — but a handful still hang in the balance. While Democratic incumbents are holding slim leads in most of the still-contested races, they trail in three contests and are waiting on thousands of ballots in others. Here’s POLITICO’s list of races to watch now and into next week.
Republicans have won at least 239 House seats as of Wednesday afternoon — but a handful still hang in the balance. While Democratic incumbents are holding slim leads in most of the still-contested races, they trail in three contests and are waiting on thousands of ballots in others. Here’s POLITICO’s list of races to watch now and into next week.
Democrats leading
As expected, Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is hanging onto Arizona’s 8th District — but barely, and there are thousands of Pima County ballots still to be counted. Giffords is leading her Republican challenger, former Marine Jesse Kelly, by about 2,400 votes with 99.7 percent of the votes reported. A Kelly spokesman told POLITICO there are about 30,000 votes that need to be counted, though not all of those are necessarily 8th District votes. The campaign isn’t expecting a resolution until later this week. Kelly, a tea party favorite, beat a moderate Republican in the primary, and Giffords has hammered him as too extreme for the district.
Rep. Raul Grijalva’s fears were almost realized in Arizona’s 7th District last night — and he awaits the same nail-biting Pima County ballot counting as Giffords does. With 99.7 percent of the votes tallied, he led 28-year-old rocket scientist Ruth McClung by just 3,500 votes. This was Grijalva’s closest race ever: He first won the seat in 2002 with 59 percent of the votes and won more than 60 percent in 2004 and 2006. McClung drew last-minute money and help from Arizona Sen. John McCain and a slew of outside groups, and while her campaign is waiting for a canvass, Grijalva is likely to hold on.
In Arizona, an automatic recount is triggered if the difference between two candidates is less than one-tenth of 1 percent. Candidates can’t ask for one.
Also ahead is Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei, who has a slim lead of 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent over his GOP challenger, Ann Marie Buerkle, in New York’s 25th District. But there are still some 10,000 outstanding absentee ballots that will prove critical in determining the outcome of that contest, now separated by fewer than 4,000 votes.
In Kentucky’s 6th District, Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler led Republican Andy Barr by just 600 votes. If Chandler’s lead holds, it will be a bright spot for his party, which saw other Blue Dog Democrats decimated, especially across the South. Chandler declared victory Tuesday night, acknowledging the national tide against him. “A lot of my colleagues, a lot of my friends, have lost their races, and I just feel very, very fortunate to have won,” he told his supporters. But Barr refused to concede, telling his own supporters: “This race ain’t over.” He wouldn’t address questions about whether he would seek a recount.
Another of the night’s closest races was in the shadow of the nation’s capital in Virginia’s 11th District. In a rematch of their open contest just two years ago, Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly was leading Republican Keith Fimian by just 820 votes. There were thousands of provisional ballots stilll to be counted, which could take until the end of the week, and there were reports of some voting machine malfunctions. If the margin between the two candidates remains less than 1 percent, the second-place finisher can ask for a recount.
Democrats trailing
Texas Democratic Rep. Solomon Ortiz was blindsided by Republican Blake Farenthold, whose challenge became competitive very late in the cycle. Now, Ortiz trails Farenthold in the 27th District race by just 800 votes with all precincts reporting — but he has yet to concede the race and remained undecided Wednesday afternoon about whether to call for a recount.
In Washington state, Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen is trailing Republican challenger John Koster by just 1,400 votes — and thousands of ballots are yet to be counted. As of Wednesday afternoon, only 63 percent of the votes had been tallied. In Washington, all voting is done by mail, and voters have until Election Day to mail their ballots, so it could take weeks for final results. Larsen released a defiant statement Tuesday night and won’t concede yet.
In California, Republican challenger Andy Vidak was narrowly leading Democratic Rep. Jim Costa by just 693 votes. With all precincts reporting, Vidak, a cherry farmer, led the three-term congressman, 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent. Democratic sources told POLITICO a significant number of provisional ballots have yet to be counted, and they’re expecting them to break for Costa.
In a surprise, Illinois Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean — who had been absent from many lists of endangered incumbents — is trailing Republican challenger Joe Walsh for her 8th District seat. With 99.8 percent of the votes tallied, she trails by a little more than 500 votes. It could be days before a winner is declared because they haven’t even started counting absentee and provisional ballots, and Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady is calling for a 30-day review of ballots in his very close race. A Democratic source told POLITICO there are still thousands of ballots to be counted in Chicago’s Cook County, part of which is in the 8th District, and that county has been breaking for Bean.
Ripe for a recount
The race in California’s 11th District was one of the closest of the night and seems ripe for a recount. With 99 percent of the votes reported, GOP challenger David Harmer was narrowly leading Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney by just 23 votes as of Wednesday afternoon, after having traded the lead throughout election night and the next morning. Confounding the race were thousands of last-minute absentee and provisional ballots, which aren’t expected to be fully tallied before the end of the week. In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge is asking for a recount. Shifting vote tallies the day after the election showed him gaining votes on Republican challenger Renee Ellmers, whom he trailed by about 2,000 votes late Wednesday afternoon. The margin is less than 1 percent, the threshold for a recount, and Etheridge has told the state Board of Elections he’ll ask for one if counts show less than that differential.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story failed to include Illinois' 8th District.
http://www.politico.com//news/stories/1110/44656.html
As expected, Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is hanging onto Arizona’s 8th District — but barely, and there are thousands of Pima County ballots still to be counted. Giffords is leading her Republican challenger, former Marine Jesse Kelly, by about 2,400 votes with 99.7 percent of the votes reported. A Kelly spokesman told POLITICO there are about 30,000 votes that need to be counted, though not all of those are necessarily 8th District votes. The campaign isn’t expecting a resolution until later this week. Kelly, a tea party favorite, beat a moderate Republican in the primary, and Giffords has hammered him as too extreme for the district.
Rep. Raul Grijalva’s fears were almost realized in Arizona’s 7th District last night — and he awaits the same nail-biting Pima County ballot counting as Giffords does. With 99.7 percent of the votes tallied, he led 28-year-old rocket scientist Ruth McClung by just 3,500 votes. This was Grijalva’s closest race ever: He first won the seat in 2002 with 59 percent of the votes and won more than 60 percent in 2004 and 2006. McClung drew last-minute money and help from Arizona Sen. John McCain and a slew of outside groups, and while her campaign is waiting for a canvass, Grijalva is likely to hold on.
In Arizona, an automatic recount is triggered if the difference between two candidates is less than one-tenth of 1 percent. Candidates can’t ask for one.
Also ahead is Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei, who has a slim lead of 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent over his GOP challenger, Ann Marie Buerkle, in New York’s 25th District. But there are still some 10,000 outstanding absentee ballots that will prove critical in determining the outcome of that contest, now separated by fewer than 4,000 votes.
In Kentucky’s 6th District, Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler led Republican Andy Barr by just 600 votes. If Chandler’s lead holds, it will be a bright spot for his party, which saw other Blue Dog Democrats decimated, especially across the South. Chandler declared victory Tuesday night, acknowledging the national tide against him. “A lot of my colleagues, a lot of my friends, have lost their races, and I just feel very, very fortunate to have won,” he told his supporters. But Barr refused to concede, telling his own supporters: “This race ain’t over.” He wouldn’t address questions about whether he would seek a recount.
Another of the night’s closest races was in the shadow of the nation’s capital in Virginia’s 11th District. In a rematch of their open contest just two years ago, Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly was leading Republican Keith Fimian by just 820 votes. There were thousands of provisional ballots stilll to be counted, which could take until the end of the week, and there were reports of some voting machine malfunctions. If the margin between the two candidates remains less than 1 percent, the second-place finisher can ask for a recount.
Democrats trailing
Texas Democratic Rep. Solomon Ortiz was blindsided by Republican Blake Farenthold, whose challenge became competitive very late in the cycle. Now, Ortiz trails Farenthold in the 27th District race by just 800 votes with all precincts reporting — but he has yet to concede the race and remained undecided Wednesday afternoon about whether to call for a recount.
In Washington state, Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen is trailing Republican challenger John Koster by just 1,400 votes — and thousands of ballots are yet to be counted. As of Wednesday afternoon, only 63 percent of the votes had been tallied. In Washington, all voting is done by mail, and voters have until Election Day to mail their ballots, so it could take weeks for final results. Larsen released a defiant statement Tuesday night and won’t concede yet.
In California, Republican challenger Andy Vidak was narrowly leading Democratic Rep. Jim Costa by just 693 votes. With all precincts reporting, Vidak, a cherry farmer, led the three-term congressman, 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent. Democratic sources told POLITICO a significant number of provisional ballots have yet to be counted, and they’re expecting them to break for Costa.
In a surprise, Illinois Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean — who had been absent from many lists of endangered incumbents — is trailing Republican challenger Joe Walsh for her 8th District seat. With 99.8 percent of the votes tallied, she trails by a little more than 500 votes. It could be days before a winner is declared because they haven’t even started counting absentee and provisional ballots, and Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady is calling for a 30-day review of ballots in his very close race. A Democratic source told POLITICO there are still thousands of ballots to be counted in Chicago’s Cook County, part of which is in the 8th District, and that county has been breaking for Bean.
Ripe for a recount
The race in California’s 11th District was one of the closest of the night and seems ripe for a recount. With 99 percent of the votes reported, GOP challenger David Harmer was narrowly leading Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney by just 23 votes as of Wednesday afternoon, after having traded the lead throughout election night and the next morning. Confounding the race were thousands of last-minute absentee and provisional ballots, which aren’t expected to be fully tallied before the end of the week. In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge is asking for a recount. Shifting vote tallies the day after the election showed him gaining votes on Republican challenger Renee Ellmers, whom he trailed by about 2,000 votes late Wednesday afternoon. The margin is less than 1 percent, the threshold for a recount, and Etheridge has told the state Board of Elections he’ll ask for one if counts show less than that differential.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story failed to include Illinois' 8th District.
http://www.politico.com//news/stories/1110/44656.html