It’s an especially challenging year for dozens of Democratic incumbents. Here's a quick rundown of the party's most vulnerable members.
AL-2: REP. BOBBY BRIGHT: The freshman has voted against key Democratic bills and even said he won’t vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker, but in this GOP-leaning district, it still might not be enough to save him.
AZ-5: REP. HARRY MITCHELL: The two-term Democrat faces a rematch with Republican David Schweikert after defeating him easily in 2008, but this year the tide is against Mitchell in this GOP-oriented district.
AR-1: OPEN (BERRY): With Democratic Rep. Marion Berry retiring, his former chief of staff, Chad Causey, has grabbed the party’s mantle, but he faces a stiff challenge from Republican nominee Rick Crawford.
CA-11: REP. JERRY MCNERNEY: The two-term Democrat’s been a constant target in this GOP-friendly district, but Republican David Harmer has run a strong campaign, and the most recent public polls show him slightly ahead.
CO-3: REP. JOHN SALAZAR: The three-term Democrat’s had easy reelections before, but with the assistance of a GOP tailwind, state Rep. Scott Tipton has made this a tossup.
FL-8: REP. ALAN GRAYSON: The bombastic freshman Democrat hasn’t met a television camera he doesn’t like, and he’s turning his fire against GOP opponent Daniel Webster. But in a swing district, Grayson’s partisanship and negative ads could backfire.
FL-22: REP. RON KLEIN: Tea party favorite Allen West has raked in more than $5 million for his campaign to unseat two-termer Klein. But just weeks before Election Day, West has been forced to deny ties to a controversial motorcycle gang.
GA-2: REP. SANFORD BISHOP: GOP state Rep. Mike Keown was already mounting a strong challenge, but the race became even tighter after nine-term Rep. Bishop faced reports he’d helped family and friends get Congressional Black Caucus scholarships.
GA-8: REP. JIM MARSHALL: African-American turnout has always been key to four-term Rep. Marshall’s past victories in this GOP-friendly district, and he’s betting on high turnout in a midterm year if he’s going to repel a challenge from Republican state Rep. Austin Scott.
HI-1: REP. CHARLES DJOU: The GOP’s Djou made his way to Congress in May, thanks to a three-way special election that split the Democratic vote, but now he faces only Colleen Hanabusa. While Dems see this as a bright pickup hope amid an otherwise bleak map for them, polls have shown Djou is narrowly leading Hanabusa.
IA-3: REP. LEONARD BOSWELL: The Democratic incumbent is in a tough fight against state Sen. Brad Zaun. While Democrats have hit the GOP nominee over unpaid taxes and a report that he stalked an ex-girlfriend, Boswell’s being pulled down by unpopular statewide Democrats at the top of the ticket.
IL-10: OPEN (KIRK): Democrat Dan Seals is hoping the third time’s the charm in his quest for this North Shore Chicago House seat. And his chances look better against Republican Bob Dold than they were against GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, who is running for Senate.
IL-17: REP. PHIL HARE: This is a district Democrats several months ago didn’t expect to be defending, but late polls have shown Republican restaurateur Bobby Schilling pulling even with the two-term congressman, helped by falling Democratic favorability in downstate Illinois.
IN-2: REP. JOE DONNELLY: The moderate Democrat has been hurt by his vote for health care reform, and he’s seen his onetime allies in the anti-abortion movement turn on him. That combination has helped Republican state Rep. Jackie Walorski’s campaign against the two-term congressman in this GOP-leaning district.
IN-9: REP. BARON HILL: Hill isn’t facing his four-time GOP opponent, Mike Sodrel — who defeated him in 2004 before he won the seat back in 2006 — but his votes in favor of health care reform and cap and trade are helping boost Republican Todd Young’s campaign.
MD-1: REP. FRANK KRATOVIL JR.: GOP state Sen. Andy Harris ousted moderate Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in a GOP primary in 2008, but it was Kratovil who got Gilchrest’s blessing in the general. Now, the environment’s much different as Kratovil faces longer odds in his rematch with Harris.
MI-7: REP. MARK SCHAUER: The freshman Democrat faces a rematch with the man he ousted in 2008, former Rep. Tim Walberg. While the two are neck and neck in the polls, they’re both receiving heavy assistance from outside groups spending on their behalf.
MS-1: REP. TRAVIS CHILDERS: Childers, a Democrat, was the beneficiary of a tide in his favor when he captured this seat in a May 2008 special election and held onto it in November. But now, it’s a much different environment for him against GOP state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, despite Childers’s conservative voting record and endorsement from the National Rifle Association.
NC-08: REP. LARRY KISSELL: While this freshman Democrat was ushered into office by President Barack Obama’s Tar Heel State win in 2008, it’s hurting, not helping, this year. And beset by weak fundraising all cycle, he has considerably less in the bank than does GOP opponent Harold Johnson.
ND-AL: REP. EARL POMEROY: Former state Rep. Rick Berg is a highly touted Republican recruit, and public polls have shown him leading nine-term Rep. Pomeroy for months in the GOP-leaning state.
NH-1: REP. CAROL SHEA-PORTER: The two-term Democrat is in trouble in the more Republican of the state’s two congressional seats, and former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta is being helped by Senate nominee Kelly Ayotte at the top of the GOP ticket.
NH-2: OPEN (HODES): With Democrat Paul Hodes, the man who defeated him in 2006, now running for Senate, former GOP Rep. Charlie Bass saw the perfect opportunity for a comeback. But polls show Democratic nominee Ann McLane Kuster still narrowly leading him in the liberal-leaning district.
NJ-3: REP. JOHN ADLER: Late polls have shown former Philadelphia Eagles star Jon Runyan surging against the freshman Democrat. Runyan’s also been stumping in the final days of the campaign with popular GOP Gov. Chris Christie.
NM-2: REP. HARRY TEAGUE: After stepping aside for a failed 2008 Senate bid, former GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is making a strong challenge to his Democratic successor, Teague. Helping his comeback is Teague’s vote for cap and trade, which could prove fatal in this energy-producing district.
NV-3: REP. DINA TITUS: High unemployment and foreclosure rates are hurting Titus in her bid for a second term. She’s in a dead heat in polls with former GOP state Sen. Joe Heck, whom Democrats have been trying to tie to Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle as of late.
NY-23: REP. BILL OWENS: The freshman Democrat won a November 2009 special election, thanks to a sharp GOP division. Doug Hoffman was the GOP spoiler then, but after losing the primary again this cycle, he announced he wouldn’t run on a third-party line. With Hoffman gone, Republican nominee Matt Doheny’s chances have shot up in this GOP-leaning district.
NY-24: REP. MICHAEL ARCURI: Arcuri just narrowly won reelection against Republican Richard Hanna in 2008, and this year certainly isn’t a better tide for him in a rematch in this GOP-leaning upstate district.
OH-16: REP. JOHN BOCCIERI: This freshman Democrat’s votes for cap and trade and support for the health care bill have given Republican challenger Jim Renacci a ready-made line of attack. Outside groups are also spending heavily on both sides, making this a particularly bitter, costly contest.
PA-8: REP. PATRICK MURPHY: Former GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick is looking for revenge against two-term Democrat Murphy, who defeated him in 2006. That was a favorable year for Democrats, but now it’s Fitzpatrick who has a narrow edge over Murphy in the latest polls.
PA-10: REP. CHRIS CARNEY: The latest polls show the two-term Democrat with a narrow edge over former U.S. attorney Tom Marino. While Carney has far outpaced his GOP challenger in raising money, he still has to grapple with an unfavorable environment this cycle in a traditionally conservative district.
PA-11: REP. PAUL KANJORSKI: The longtime Democratic congressman has had to fend off ethics questions and a competitive primary this year. Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta has challenged him twice before, and the latest polls in Round 3 have shown him leading Kanjorski in this GOP-friendly year.
SC-5: REP. JOHN SPRATT: Knocking off the House Budget chairman would be a huge coup for Republicans, and thanks to Spratt’s closeness with Pelosi and his votes for key Democratic bills, Republicans think they finally have the perfect opportunity. National Republicans and challenger Mick Mulvaney have worked to tie Spratt to an unpopular Democratic administration.
SD-AL: STEPHANIE HERSETH SANDLIN: In a bad year for her party, this is likely to be Herseth Sandlin’s toughest challenge to date in this GOP-leaning state. Republican state Rep. Kristi Noem leads the three-term Democrat in the latest public polls.
TX-17: REP. CHET EDWARDS: The longtime Texas congressman has beaten the odds against well-funded GOP challengers before. He’s made all the right moves by voting against key Democratic legislation, but hurting him is that he was on Obama’s shortlist for VP in 2008. And in this conservative district, Republican Bill Flores has pulled ahead of Edwards in the latest polling.
WV-1: OPEN (MOLLOHAN): State Sen. Mike Oliverio hasn’t had the easiest time uniting his party since he upset longtime Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan in the May primary. Plus, the Mountain State is particularly hostile territory for Democrats this cycle, giving former state GOP Chairman David McKinley a key opening.
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AZ-5: REP. HARRY MITCHELL: The two-term Democrat faces a rematch with Republican David Schweikert after defeating him easily in 2008, but this year the tide is against Mitchell in this GOP-oriented district.
AR-1: OPEN (BERRY): With Democratic Rep. Marion Berry retiring, his former chief of staff, Chad Causey, has grabbed the party’s mantle, but he faces a stiff challenge from Republican nominee Rick Crawford.
CA-11: REP. JERRY MCNERNEY: The two-term Democrat’s been a constant target in this GOP-friendly district, but Republican David Harmer has run a strong campaign, and the most recent public polls show him slightly ahead.
CO-3: REP. JOHN SALAZAR: The three-term Democrat’s had easy reelections before, but with the assistance of a GOP tailwind, state Rep. Scott Tipton has made this a tossup.
FL-8: REP. ALAN GRAYSON: The bombastic freshman Democrat hasn’t met a television camera he doesn’t like, and he’s turning his fire against GOP opponent Daniel Webster. But in a swing district, Grayson’s partisanship and negative ads could backfire.
FL-22: REP. RON KLEIN: Tea party favorite Allen West has raked in more than $5 million for his campaign to unseat two-termer Klein. But just weeks before Election Day, West has been forced to deny ties to a controversial motorcycle gang.
GA-2: REP. SANFORD BISHOP: GOP state Rep. Mike Keown was already mounting a strong challenge, but the race became even tighter after nine-term Rep. Bishop faced reports he’d helped family and friends get Congressional Black Caucus scholarships.
GA-8: REP. JIM MARSHALL: African-American turnout has always been key to four-term Rep. Marshall’s past victories in this GOP-friendly district, and he’s betting on high turnout in a midterm year if he’s going to repel a challenge from Republican state Rep. Austin Scott.
HI-1: REP. CHARLES DJOU: The GOP’s Djou made his way to Congress in May, thanks to a three-way special election that split the Democratic vote, but now he faces only Colleen Hanabusa. While Dems see this as a bright pickup hope amid an otherwise bleak map for them, polls have shown Djou is narrowly leading Hanabusa.
IA-3: REP. LEONARD BOSWELL: The Democratic incumbent is in a tough fight against state Sen. Brad Zaun. While Democrats have hit the GOP nominee over unpaid taxes and a report that he stalked an ex-girlfriend, Boswell’s being pulled down by unpopular statewide Democrats at the top of the ticket.
IL-10: OPEN (KIRK): Democrat Dan Seals is hoping the third time’s the charm in his quest for this North Shore Chicago House seat. And his chances look better against Republican Bob Dold than they were against GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, who is running for Senate.
IL-17: REP. PHIL HARE: This is a district Democrats several months ago didn’t expect to be defending, but late polls have shown Republican restaurateur Bobby Schilling pulling even with the two-term congressman, helped by falling Democratic favorability in downstate Illinois.
IN-2: REP. JOE DONNELLY: The moderate Democrat has been hurt by his vote for health care reform, and he’s seen his onetime allies in the anti-abortion movement turn on him. That combination has helped Republican state Rep. Jackie Walorski’s campaign against the two-term congressman in this GOP-leaning district.
IN-9: REP. BARON HILL: Hill isn’t facing his four-time GOP opponent, Mike Sodrel — who defeated him in 2004 before he won the seat back in 2006 — but his votes in favor of health care reform and cap and trade are helping boost Republican Todd Young’s campaign.
MD-1: REP. FRANK KRATOVIL JR.: GOP state Sen. Andy Harris ousted moderate Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in a GOP primary in 2008, but it was Kratovil who got Gilchrest’s blessing in the general. Now, the environment’s much different as Kratovil faces longer odds in his rematch with Harris.
MI-7: REP. MARK SCHAUER: The freshman Democrat faces a rematch with the man he ousted in 2008, former Rep. Tim Walberg. While the two are neck and neck in the polls, they’re both receiving heavy assistance from outside groups spending on their behalf.
MS-1: REP. TRAVIS CHILDERS: Childers, a Democrat, was the beneficiary of a tide in his favor when he captured this seat in a May 2008 special election and held onto it in November. But now, it’s a much different environment for him against GOP state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, despite Childers’s conservative voting record and endorsement from the National Rifle Association.
NC-08: REP. LARRY KISSELL: While this freshman Democrat was ushered into office by President Barack Obama’s Tar Heel State win in 2008, it’s hurting, not helping, this year. And beset by weak fundraising all cycle, he has considerably less in the bank than does GOP opponent Harold Johnson.
ND-AL: REP. EARL POMEROY: Former state Rep. Rick Berg is a highly touted Republican recruit, and public polls have shown him leading nine-term Rep. Pomeroy for months in the GOP-leaning state.
NH-1: REP. CAROL SHEA-PORTER: The two-term Democrat is in trouble in the more Republican of the state’s two congressional seats, and former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta is being helped by Senate nominee Kelly Ayotte at the top of the GOP ticket.
NH-2: OPEN (HODES): With Democrat Paul Hodes, the man who defeated him in 2006, now running for Senate, former GOP Rep. Charlie Bass saw the perfect opportunity for a comeback. But polls show Democratic nominee Ann McLane Kuster still narrowly leading him in the liberal-leaning district.
NJ-3: REP. JOHN ADLER: Late polls have shown former Philadelphia Eagles star Jon Runyan surging against the freshman Democrat. Runyan’s also been stumping in the final days of the campaign with popular GOP Gov. Chris Christie.
NM-2: REP. HARRY TEAGUE: After stepping aside for a failed 2008 Senate bid, former GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is making a strong challenge to his Democratic successor, Teague. Helping his comeback is Teague’s vote for cap and trade, which could prove fatal in this energy-producing district.
NV-3: REP. DINA TITUS: High unemployment and foreclosure rates are hurting Titus in her bid for a second term. She’s in a dead heat in polls with former GOP state Sen. Joe Heck, whom Democrats have been trying to tie to Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle as of late.
NY-23: REP. BILL OWENS: The freshman Democrat won a November 2009 special election, thanks to a sharp GOP division. Doug Hoffman was the GOP spoiler then, but after losing the primary again this cycle, he announced he wouldn’t run on a third-party line. With Hoffman gone, Republican nominee Matt Doheny’s chances have shot up in this GOP-leaning district.
NY-24: REP. MICHAEL ARCURI: Arcuri just narrowly won reelection against Republican Richard Hanna in 2008, and this year certainly isn’t a better tide for him in a rematch in this GOP-leaning upstate district.
OH-16: REP. JOHN BOCCIERI: This freshman Democrat’s votes for cap and trade and support for the health care bill have given Republican challenger Jim Renacci a ready-made line of attack. Outside groups are also spending heavily on both sides, making this a particularly bitter, costly contest.
PA-8: REP. PATRICK MURPHY: Former GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick is looking for revenge against two-term Democrat Murphy, who defeated him in 2006. That was a favorable year for Democrats, but now it’s Fitzpatrick who has a narrow edge over Murphy in the latest polls.
PA-10: REP. CHRIS CARNEY: The latest polls show the two-term Democrat with a narrow edge over former U.S. attorney Tom Marino. While Carney has far outpaced his GOP challenger in raising money, he still has to grapple with an unfavorable environment this cycle in a traditionally conservative district.
PA-11: REP. PAUL KANJORSKI: The longtime Democratic congressman has had to fend off ethics questions and a competitive primary this year. Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta has challenged him twice before, and the latest polls in Round 3 have shown him leading Kanjorski in this GOP-friendly year.
SC-5: REP. JOHN SPRATT: Knocking off the House Budget chairman would be a huge coup for Republicans, and thanks to Spratt’s closeness with Pelosi and his votes for key Democratic bills, Republicans think they finally have the perfect opportunity. National Republicans and challenger Mick Mulvaney have worked to tie Spratt to an unpopular Democratic administration.
SD-AL: STEPHANIE HERSETH SANDLIN: In a bad year for her party, this is likely to be Herseth Sandlin’s toughest challenge to date in this GOP-leaning state. Republican state Rep. Kristi Noem leads the three-term Democrat in the latest public polls.
TX-17: REP. CHET EDWARDS: The longtime Texas congressman has beaten the odds against well-funded GOP challengers before. He’s made all the right moves by voting against key Democratic legislation, but hurting him is that he was on Obama’s shortlist for VP in 2008. And in this conservative district, Republican Bill Flores has pulled ahead of Edwards in the latest polling.
WV-1: OPEN (MOLLOHAN): State Sen. Mike Oliverio hasn’t had the easiest time uniting his party since he upset longtime Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan in the May primary. Plus, the Mountain State is particularly hostile territory for Democrats this cycle, giving former state GOP Chairman David McKinley a key opening.
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