Congress's newest member, Rep. Janice Hahn, D-Calif., may find herself running against another Democratic incumbent next year thanks to redistricting in her state, but a survey conducted for her campaign suggests she's the early favorite in the race.
Hahn, who was elected in July to succeed former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., saw her Los Angeles-based district immediately sliced up by the state's independent redistricting commission, but she signaled after the maps were approved this week that she would run next year in the new 44th District, where she resides. But that district is also where Rep. Laura Richardson, D-Calif., had said she'll run and where Democratic Assemblyman Isadore Hall had already launched a campaign.
Hahn, who was elected in July to succeed former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., saw her Los Angeles-based district immediately sliced up by the state's independent redistricting commission, but she signaled after the maps were approved this week that she would run next year in the new 44th District, where she resides. But that district is also where Rep. Laura Richardson, D-Calif., had said she'll run and where Democratic Assemblyman Isadore Hall had already launched a campaign.
A poll conducted for Hahn's campaign in the new district by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates, the Democratic firm that polled for her in her special election victory last month, shows Hahn with a nearly two-to-one edge over Richardson. Hahn leads Richardson, 47 percent to 24 percent. Hall earns just 7 percent, while 22 percent remain undecided.
In a head-to-head matchup - which is likely to happen in a runoff under the state's new open primary rules - Hahn still has the clear advantage, leading Richardson 47 percent to 26 percent, with 27 percent undecided. If she goes up against Hall, Hahn leads 53 percent to 17 percent.
The new district includes bases of support for each candidate, but Hispanics are the largest ethnic group, making up 68 percent of the population. One reason Richardson presumably chose to run here instead of the neighboring 47th District is it has a higher African-American percentage (17 percent) and is far more Democratic. Both Richardson and Hall are black while Hahn is white.
The new district includes areas around San Pedro, where Hahn has performed well, but also Compton and Carson, where Richardson has looked to for support before, even though she doesn't live now in the new district. Hahn's family name and her tenure on the Los Angeles City Council clearly offer her a boost in the newly-redrawn district. Her late father, Kenny Hahn, was also a city councilman and a civil rights leader and still has 75 percent name-ID and a 65 percent favorability rating. Hahn overall is viewed more positively by voters, getting a 60 percent favorability rating, compared to Richardson's 37 percent. Hahn also has higher ratings among African American voters - 74 percent to Richardson's 68 percent. In the part of the district Richardson previously represented in Congress, Hahn has an 11 point lead. Weighing on voters' minds are Richardson's recent ethics problems; there have been allegations that Richardson forced her congressional staff to work for -- and contribute to -- her campaign. Richardson has denied the allegations. The survey was conducted August 4 through August 7 and interviewed 300 likely voters in the June 2012 non-partisan primary. The margin of error is +/- 5.7 percent.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2011/08/hahn-poll-shows-she-d-easily-beat-richardson-19
In a head-to-head matchup - which is likely to happen in a runoff under the state's new open primary rules - Hahn still has the clear advantage, leading Richardson 47 percent to 26 percent, with 27 percent undecided. If she goes up against Hall, Hahn leads 53 percent to 17 percent.
The new district includes bases of support for each candidate, but Hispanics are the largest ethnic group, making up 68 percent of the population. One reason Richardson presumably chose to run here instead of the neighboring 47th District is it has a higher African-American percentage (17 percent) and is far more Democratic. Both Richardson and Hall are black while Hahn is white.
The new district includes areas around San Pedro, where Hahn has performed well, but also Compton and Carson, where Richardson has looked to for support before, even though she doesn't live now in the new district. Hahn's family name and her tenure on the Los Angeles City Council clearly offer her a boost in the newly-redrawn district. Her late father, Kenny Hahn, was also a city councilman and a civil rights leader and still has 75 percent name-ID and a 65 percent favorability rating. Hahn overall is viewed more positively by voters, getting a 60 percent favorability rating, compared to Richardson's 37 percent. Hahn also has higher ratings among African American voters - 74 percent to Richardson's 68 percent. In the part of the district Richardson previously represented in Congress, Hahn has an 11 point lead. Weighing on voters' minds are Richardson's recent ethics problems; there have been allegations that Richardson forced her congressional staff to work for -- and contribute to -- her campaign. Richardson has denied the allegations. The survey was conducted August 4 through August 7 and interviewed 300 likely voters in the June 2012 non-partisan primary. The margin of error is +/- 5.7 percent.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2011/08/hahn-poll-shows-she-d-easily-beat-richardson-19