After months of hand-wringing, finger-pointing and attack ads, Election Day is here in New York's 26th District. The election skyrocketed to national prominence as Democrat Kathy Hochul began pressing Republican Jane Corwin over Rep. Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., budget that would revamp Medicare, but there's also the presence of third-party candidate Jack Davis, a former Democratic nominee for the seat now running as a tea party candidate, complicating the race.
Polls opened this morning in the Buffalo/Rochester area at 6 a.m. and close at 9 p.m. We'll keep you posted throughout the day and when results begin coming in right here at Hotline On Call.
Polls opened this morning in the Buffalo/Rochester area at 6 a.m. and close at 9 p.m. We'll keep you posted throughout the day and when results begin coming in right here at Hotline On Call.
2:22 p.m.: Danger: you're about to enter the spin zone.
The polls are open for another 6 1/2 hours (yeah, we're ready for numbers too) but both parties are already previewing their messages -- win or lose -- for tonight.
National Journal's Billy House reports that House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said at his weekly briefing this morning that no matter whether Hochul gets the upset, Democrats have already delivered a resounding message by making what should have been a "slam dunk" a nail-biter because of the Ryan budget.
Hoyer said the message from voters is: "We don't want you to turn over our security to the insurance companies, we don't want them making our decisions, we don't want you to take a guarantee away from us to have security in our health care in our senior years."
"You made them spend over $1 million in a district that should have been a yawn and vote," said Hoyer.
National Republican Congressional Chairman Pete Sessions, meanwhile didn't sound too upbeat over Corwin's chances in a GOP conference meeting, Politico reports. Keeping up the GOP's drumbeat in recent days, Sessions pointed to Davis as the spoiler who could cost them the race.
12:00 p.m.: Republicans probably wish Corwin had admitted this sooner than the day before the election. Talking to seniors Monday, Corwin said she should have addressed the Ryan plan sooner. Hochul seized on the issue, and pressed it at every turn. Corwin didn't directly respond until she released a campaign ad last week, and on the trail explained to voters the changes would keep Medicare solvent. But the nuances may have fallen on confused ears during the campaign.
8:52 p.m.: A final turnout update before polls close: Monroe County has released their final turnout estimate. At 8 p.m., there was an estimated 23% turnout in the GOP-leaning Rochester suburbs - a crucial one for Corwin's campaign and a good sign for them turnout was high. Erie County, the largest in the district and a critical one for Hochul to do well in, didn't have any updated numbers since 4 p.m., when they estimated turnout was between 18 percent and 20 percent - but that was before voters would be getting off work and may be heading to the polls. Corwin spokesman Matthew Harakal sends over this as the polls close: ""It looks like the months we've spent putting together an aggressive ground game are paying off. The rural GLOW county turnout is relatively high and our ID'd voters are reporting back with even higher numbers than we had hoped for." 5:34 p.m.: Erie County turnout has already been strong in the Democratic-leaning area - even before the heavy post-work voting hours began. Election officials said at 4:30 p.m. turnout was estimated to be between 18 and 20 percent. The district's largest county, it's a must-win area for Hochul and a place where she needs to build up a lead to offset Corwin's advantage in the GOP-leaning areas of the district. Monroe County, which includes Rochester, reported 17 percent turnout as of 5:00 p.m. The county anticipated providing another update this evening. Corwin needs strong turnout here in the conservative county. The more rural counties in the district, or the "glow" counties - Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming - weren't tracking turnout statistics, but an Orelans county official did remark that turnout was "light." Corwin also needs strong margins in these areas to pull out a win. 4:30 p.m.: In case you doubted how close the New York special election result was likely to be, the Corwin campaign has obtained a court order from the state Supreme Court to bar the certification of a winner until a show-cause hearing later this week. Arguments were heard in Erie County this morning, and the ruling applies to all of the district's seven counties. A hearing has been scheduled for Thursday morning, but if the margin is wide enough to erase doubt need for court action, the order would be moot. Corwin campaign manager Chris Grant explained to Hotline On Call that the order is typical in close elections, and this ensures that there is a representative from each campaign present when paper and absentee ballots are opened and during a potential recanvass. "All we're trying to do is ensure that every legal vote that was properly cast was counted fairly and accurately," Grant explained. YNN's Liz Benjamin reported that there are over 6,400 ballots that had been sent out in the race, and she has a complete breakdown by county here. According to New York State Board of Elections spokesman John Conklin, all results are automatically recanvassed, and there's no specific margin that would trigger a recount. If a local board of elections finds a discrepancy, they can do a 3 percent audit, and that can be raised to 5 percent and then 12 percent if additional discrepancies are found. "If a campaign is going to request something they have to go to court and ask a judge to do it," said Conklin. 2:22 p.m.: Danger: you're about to enter the spin zone. The polls are open for another 6 1/2 hours (yeah, we're ready for numbers too) but both parties are already previewing their messages -- win or lose -- for tonight. National Journal's Billy House reports that House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said at his weekly briefing this morning that no matter whether Hochul gets the upset, Democrats have already delivered a resounding message by making what should have been a "slam dunk" a nail-biter because of the Ryan budget. Hoyer said the message from voters is: "We don't want you to turn over our security to the insurance companies, we don't want them making our decisions, we don't want you to take a guarantee away from us to have security in our health care in our senior years." "You made them spend over $1 million in a district that should have been a yawn and vote," said Hoyer. National Republican Congressional Chairman Pete Sessions, meanwhile didn't sound too upbeat over Corwin's chances in a GOP conference meeting, Politico reports. Keeping up the GOP's drumbeat in recent days, Sessions pointed to Davis as the spoiler who could cost them the race. 12:00 p.m.: Republicans probably wish Corwin had admitted this sooner than the day before the election. Talking to seniors Monday, Corwin said she should have addressed the Ryan plan sooner. Hochul seized on the issue, and pressed it at every turn. Corwin didn't directly respond until she released a campaign ad last week, and on the trail explained to voters the changes would keep Medicare solvent. But the nuances may have fallen on confused ears during the campaign. "I probably would have addressed the Medicare message coming out of my opponent quicker," Corwin said. "I have to admit, when she started making these comments I thought, 'This is so outrageous no one would ever believe it.' Apparently some people did."
http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2011/05/ny-26-live-blog-the-spin-zone-24
The polls are open for another 6 1/2 hours (yeah, we're ready for numbers too) but both parties are already previewing their messages -- win or lose -- for tonight.
National Journal's Billy House reports that House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said at his weekly briefing this morning that no matter whether Hochul gets the upset, Democrats have already delivered a resounding message by making what should have been a "slam dunk" a nail-biter because of the Ryan budget.
Hoyer said the message from voters is: "We don't want you to turn over our security to the insurance companies, we don't want them making our decisions, we don't want you to take a guarantee away from us to have security in our health care in our senior years."
"You made them spend over $1 million in a district that should have been a yawn and vote," said Hoyer.
National Republican Congressional Chairman Pete Sessions, meanwhile didn't sound too upbeat over Corwin's chances in a GOP conference meeting, Politico reports. Keeping up the GOP's drumbeat in recent days, Sessions pointed to Davis as the spoiler who could cost them the race.
12:00 p.m.: Republicans probably wish Corwin had admitted this sooner than the day before the election. Talking to seniors Monday, Corwin said she should have addressed the Ryan plan sooner. Hochul seized on the issue, and pressed it at every turn. Corwin didn't directly respond until she released a campaign ad last week, and on the trail explained to voters the changes would keep Medicare solvent. But the nuances may have fallen on confused ears during the campaign.
8:52 p.m.: A final turnout update before polls close: Monroe County has released their final turnout estimate. At 8 p.m., there was an estimated 23% turnout in the GOP-leaning Rochester suburbs - a crucial one for Corwin's campaign and a good sign for them turnout was high. Erie County, the largest in the district and a critical one for Hochul to do well in, didn't have any updated numbers since 4 p.m., when they estimated turnout was between 18 percent and 20 percent - but that was before voters would be getting off work and may be heading to the polls. Corwin spokesman Matthew Harakal sends over this as the polls close: ""It looks like the months we've spent putting together an aggressive ground game are paying off. The rural GLOW county turnout is relatively high and our ID'd voters are reporting back with even higher numbers than we had hoped for." 5:34 p.m.: Erie County turnout has already been strong in the Democratic-leaning area - even before the heavy post-work voting hours began. Election officials said at 4:30 p.m. turnout was estimated to be between 18 and 20 percent. The district's largest county, it's a must-win area for Hochul and a place where she needs to build up a lead to offset Corwin's advantage in the GOP-leaning areas of the district. Monroe County, which includes Rochester, reported 17 percent turnout as of 5:00 p.m. The county anticipated providing another update this evening. Corwin needs strong turnout here in the conservative county. The more rural counties in the district, or the "glow" counties - Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming - weren't tracking turnout statistics, but an Orelans county official did remark that turnout was "light." Corwin also needs strong margins in these areas to pull out a win. 4:30 p.m.: In case you doubted how close the New York special election result was likely to be, the Corwin campaign has obtained a court order from the state Supreme Court to bar the certification of a winner until a show-cause hearing later this week. Arguments were heard in Erie County this morning, and the ruling applies to all of the district's seven counties. A hearing has been scheduled for Thursday morning, but if the margin is wide enough to erase doubt need for court action, the order would be moot. Corwin campaign manager Chris Grant explained to Hotline On Call that the order is typical in close elections, and this ensures that there is a representative from each campaign present when paper and absentee ballots are opened and during a potential recanvass. "All we're trying to do is ensure that every legal vote that was properly cast was counted fairly and accurately," Grant explained. YNN's Liz Benjamin reported that there are over 6,400 ballots that had been sent out in the race, and she has a complete breakdown by county here. According to New York State Board of Elections spokesman John Conklin, all results are automatically recanvassed, and there's no specific margin that would trigger a recount. If a local board of elections finds a discrepancy, they can do a 3 percent audit, and that can be raised to 5 percent and then 12 percent if additional discrepancies are found. "If a campaign is going to request something they have to go to court and ask a judge to do it," said Conklin. 2:22 p.m.: Danger: you're about to enter the spin zone. The polls are open for another 6 1/2 hours (yeah, we're ready for numbers too) but both parties are already previewing their messages -- win or lose -- for tonight. National Journal's Billy House reports that House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said at his weekly briefing this morning that no matter whether Hochul gets the upset, Democrats have already delivered a resounding message by making what should have been a "slam dunk" a nail-biter because of the Ryan budget. Hoyer said the message from voters is: "We don't want you to turn over our security to the insurance companies, we don't want them making our decisions, we don't want you to take a guarantee away from us to have security in our health care in our senior years." "You made them spend over $1 million in a district that should have been a yawn and vote," said Hoyer. National Republican Congressional Chairman Pete Sessions, meanwhile didn't sound too upbeat over Corwin's chances in a GOP conference meeting, Politico reports. Keeping up the GOP's drumbeat in recent days, Sessions pointed to Davis as the spoiler who could cost them the race. 12:00 p.m.: Republicans probably wish Corwin had admitted this sooner than the day before the election. Talking to seniors Monday, Corwin said she should have addressed the Ryan plan sooner. Hochul seized on the issue, and pressed it at every turn. Corwin didn't directly respond until she released a campaign ad last week, and on the trail explained to voters the changes would keep Medicare solvent. But the nuances may have fallen on confused ears during the campaign. "I probably would have addressed the Medicare message coming out of my opponent quicker," Corwin said. "I have to admit, when she started making these comments I thought, 'This is so outrageous no one would ever believe it.' Apparently some people did."
http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2011/05/ny-26-live-blog-the-spin-zone-24