Voters will head to polls in Oregon's 1st District on Tuesday for the first step in picking a successor to disgraced former Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., who resigned in August after reports he had an unwanted sexual encounter with the teenage daughter of campaign donor.
Both party contests are expected to be runaway affairs, with Democratic state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici and 2010 GOP nominee Rob Cornilles expected to cruise to a general election matchup on January 31, 2012.
Both party contests are expected to be runaway affairs, with Democratic state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici and 2010 GOP nominee Rob Cornilles expected to cruise to a general election matchup on January 31, 2012.
Democratic Primary
Oregon Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian entered the race even before there was a special election -- but that hasn't mattered much against Bonamici. Avakian announced his intent to challenge Wu in a Democratic primary last April after less-damaging but still disturbing details emerged about the now-former congressman's mental state, involving several incidents of unpredictable behavior during the run-up to last year's elections, including one where he sent staffers a photo of himself in a Halloween tiger costume.
But while Avakian posted good fundraising numbers while his target was still Wu, once the embattled congressman finally stepped down and other challengers got in the race, Avakian's fundraising slowed. Bonamici had been eyeing the contest for some time as well, and she joined the race shortly after Wu stepped down, along with state Rep. Brad Witt, to round out the top tier of candidates on a ballot that will actually feature eight total candidates.
Several polls, both internal and public, have shown Bonamici with a commanding lead. A recent Portland Oregonian/KGW-TV survey gave her a 34-point lead, taking 45 percent to Avakian's 11 percent. Internal polling from EMILY's List and Bonamici's campaign showed her ahead by similar wide margins.
Crucial to Bonamici's ability to vault to the top of the pack: she was up early and often on television, spending over $250,000 on TV, buoyed by $200,000 of her own money. And while Avakian racked up the majority of the labor endorsements, Bonamici's enjoyed strong support from EMILY's List. Avakian's worked to paint himself as the more progressive of the two, railing against the tea party in his only television ad, a small $50,000 buy. Avakian's also been beset by problematic stories about his own personal finances.
Republican Primary Republicans got the strongest possible candidate they could here when Cornilles, a sports management consultant who ran against Wu last year, decided to jump back into the race. While he's still in a five-way GOP primary on Tuesday, he's expected to cruise to victory and has been able to conserve most of his cash -- a hefty $500,000 haul in the 3rd quarter -- for the anticipated January race with Bonamici. Cornilles has also been on the air, releasing an ad showing him jogging through the district, boasting of his business background and independence. The ad bore a striking similarity to one neighboring Rep. Earl Blumenauer, D-Ore., ran the state's last congressional special election in 1996 - and the Democratic congressman even paid to put the original spot back on the air to mock Cornilles.Mail-in Vote Voters have actually had ballots in their hands for the past three weeks, thanks to the state's all mail elections. Oregon has also been introducing the use of the iPad to make it easier for disabled voters to vote. Ballots have to be received at county election offices or drop boxes by 8 p.m. Pacific Time on Tuesday. Even with the mail-in vote, turnout is still expected to be low, at about 28 percent so far. The Portland Oregonian notes there's typically a surge of ballots returned on Election Day, but participation is still expected to fall below 50 percent.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2011/11/previewing-oregon-s-1st-district-special-primary-election-07
Oregon Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian entered the race even before there was a special election -- but that hasn't mattered much against Bonamici. Avakian announced his intent to challenge Wu in a Democratic primary last April after less-damaging but still disturbing details emerged about the now-former congressman's mental state, involving several incidents of unpredictable behavior during the run-up to last year's elections, including one where he sent staffers a photo of himself in a Halloween tiger costume.
But while Avakian posted good fundraising numbers while his target was still Wu, once the embattled congressman finally stepped down and other challengers got in the race, Avakian's fundraising slowed. Bonamici had been eyeing the contest for some time as well, and she joined the race shortly after Wu stepped down, along with state Rep. Brad Witt, to round out the top tier of candidates on a ballot that will actually feature eight total candidates.
Several polls, both internal and public, have shown Bonamici with a commanding lead. A recent Portland Oregonian/KGW-TV survey gave her a 34-point lead, taking 45 percent to Avakian's 11 percent. Internal polling from EMILY's List and Bonamici's campaign showed her ahead by similar wide margins.
Crucial to Bonamici's ability to vault to the top of the pack: she was up early and often on television, spending over $250,000 on TV, buoyed by $200,000 of her own money. And while Avakian racked up the majority of the labor endorsements, Bonamici's enjoyed strong support from EMILY's List. Avakian's worked to paint himself as the more progressive of the two, railing against the tea party in his only television ad, a small $50,000 buy. Avakian's also been beset by problematic stories about his own personal finances.
Republican Primary Republicans got the strongest possible candidate they could here when Cornilles, a sports management consultant who ran against Wu last year, decided to jump back into the race. While he's still in a five-way GOP primary on Tuesday, he's expected to cruise to victory and has been able to conserve most of his cash -- a hefty $500,000 haul in the 3rd quarter -- for the anticipated January race with Bonamici. Cornilles has also been on the air, releasing an ad showing him jogging through the district, boasting of his business background and independence. The ad bore a striking similarity to one neighboring Rep. Earl Blumenauer, D-Ore., ran the state's last congressional special election in 1996 - and the Democratic congressman even paid to put the original spot back on the air to mock Cornilles.Mail-in Vote Voters have actually had ballots in their hands for the past three weeks, thanks to the state's all mail elections. Oregon has also been introducing the use of the iPad to make it easier for disabled voters to vote. Ballots have to be received at county election offices or drop boxes by 8 p.m. Pacific Time on Tuesday. Even with the mail-in vote, turnout is still expected to be low, at about 28 percent so far. The Portland Oregonian notes there's typically a surge of ballots returned on Election Day, but participation is still expected to fall below 50 percent.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2011/11/previewing-oregon-s-1st-district-special-primary-election-07