FOREST HILLS, N.Y. -- President Obama won't officially be on the ballot in this special election in New York's 9th District, but he might as well be.
What was once presumed would be a sleepy affair between Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner in the race to succeed former Rep. Anthony Weiner, has become anything but, with Republicans rushing to frame the race as a referendum on the president and his agenda - specifically his administration's policies toward Israel.
What was once presumed would be a sleepy affair between Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner in the race to succeed former Rep. Anthony Weiner, has become anything but, with Republicans rushing to frame the race as a referendum on the president and his agenda - specifically his administration's policies toward Israel.
Now Democrats, playing defense on that front and faced with a staggering economy and the president's free-falling approval ratings, find themselves with at serious risk of losing this seat, despite the district's three-to-one registration advantage.
Candidates matter: Weprin, a state assemblyman, was picked as the Democratic standard-bearer to succeed the spotlight-seeking Weiner. The two men could not be more dissimilar -- while Weiner was constantly on television and engaged in social media (ultimately his downfall), Weprin is a softspoken man who comes from a storied Queens political family. But that doesn't mean he got their political charm.
Outside the Kew Gardens subway stop on Monday night during rush hour, Weprin approached some people and stuck out his hand for several individuals that breezed on by, and it was David "Bowzer" Bauman of the 1960's rock group Sha Na Na, a Queens native who has been stumping for Weprin, who was the most aggressive surrogate with the Weprin camp, often breaking out into song.
Weprin's been unassuming and often proved gaffe-prone throughout the election - misstating the size of the national debt by $10 trillion in an editorial board meeting and ungracefully bowing out of a debate and blaming it on Hurricane Irene, despite the storm largely sparing the area.
Weprin and Democrats have attempted to attack Turner over the GOP budget proposal that would revamp Medicare, but that appears to have fallen short, despite Weprin's heavy campaigning in senior centers and his focus on the issue during the final day of campaigning.
Other Empire State oddity: the state Assembly doesn't have the best track record for production special election winners. In the past three contests, GOP assembly-members chosen by their party as the nominee have fallen short - Dede Scozzafava in NY-23, Jim Tedisco in NY-20 and Jane Corwin in NY-26. Now, it seems their problems weren't unique to Republicans. Weprin could possibly extend that streak, and even those in his own party have begun to privately acknowledge he's been an underwhelming candidate - typical spin before an anticipated loss. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was forced to spend over $500,000 in TV ads in the race's final week to hammer Turner, and the House Majority PAC also went up with an ad as well. But other groups including the National Organization for Marriage and the Republican Jewish Coalition have also launched direct mail campaigns to bolster Turner. Reruns are profitable: Turner, a former cable TV executive who was incidentally responsible for putting Jerry Springer on the air, was familiar to the district already, having run in 2010, when he received 40 percent against Weiner. Still, the district had been trending Democratic and it saw a big decline from 2000 to 2008 although it still voted for Obama by 11 points. The seeds that were planted then, Turner's been able to capitalize on, as he's been actively courting Orthodox Jewish voters - even though Weprin himself is Orthodox -- and received a key boost when former New York City Mayor Ed Koch crossed party lines to back the Republican, citing Israel specifically. Turner hasn't been without his own missteps, and Weprin has sought to capitalize on his stumble in a debate last week, when he said he hasn't met a tax loophole he doesn't like. But it may be too little too late - both the final Siena College poll and even an autodial poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling gave Turner an unlikely six point lead, and he's been controlling the media message and has had the clear momentum in the race. Where to watch: Weprin - who lives just outside the district and can't vote in today's election -- needs to do well in the area's Democratic strongholds that went heavily for Obama in 2008 - Forest Hills, Rego Park, Fresh Meadows and Kew Gardens. If he's not winning at least three out of every five votes, it's going to be a long night for Democrats. Weprin's placed a heavy emphasis on these areas in the final swing, scheduling subway stops and senior center visits here to make sure his base gets out of the polls. Turner's strong areas are likely to be his home base of Rockaway Beach, Marine Park, and Howard Beach, the site of his campaign headquarters. These areas have trended heavy Republican. These Irish, Greek and Italian Catholic areas went heavily for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., three years ago. Sheepshead Bay area in Brooklyn, a heavily Orthodox Jewish area, is likely to come out strong for the GOP nominee , too. Where the deciding votes could come from: Middle Village, Maspeth and Glendale, where Obama and McCain split their votes. Turner's campaign canvassed Middle Village hard on Saturday. Weprin, in his capacity as a state assemblyman, attended a 9/11 memorial in Glendale on Sunday - even though official campaigning had been suspended, but everywhere along the side streets and businesses, Turner signs and doorknockers could be seen. -- David Wasserman in Washington contributed to this post
http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2011/09/previewing-the-ny-09-special-election-13
Candidates matter: Weprin, a state assemblyman, was picked as the Democratic standard-bearer to succeed the spotlight-seeking Weiner. The two men could not be more dissimilar -- while Weiner was constantly on television and engaged in social media (ultimately his downfall), Weprin is a softspoken man who comes from a storied Queens political family. But that doesn't mean he got their political charm.
Outside the Kew Gardens subway stop on Monday night during rush hour, Weprin approached some people and stuck out his hand for several individuals that breezed on by, and it was David "Bowzer" Bauman of the 1960's rock group Sha Na Na, a Queens native who has been stumping for Weprin, who was the most aggressive surrogate with the Weprin camp, often breaking out into song.
Weprin's been unassuming and often proved gaffe-prone throughout the election - misstating the size of the national debt by $10 trillion in an editorial board meeting and ungracefully bowing out of a debate and blaming it on Hurricane Irene, despite the storm largely sparing the area.
Weprin and Democrats have attempted to attack Turner over the GOP budget proposal that would revamp Medicare, but that appears to have fallen short, despite Weprin's heavy campaigning in senior centers and his focus on the issue during the final day of campaigning.
Other Empire State oddity: the state Assembly doesn't have the best track record for production special election winners. In the past three contests, GOP assembly-members chosen by their party as the nominee have fallen short - Dede Scozzafava in NY-23, Jim Tedisco in NY-20 and Jane Corwin in NY-26. Now, it seems their problems weren't unique to Republicans. Weprin could possibly extend that streak, and even those in his own party have begun to privately acknowledge he's been an underwhelming candidate - typical spin before an anticipated loss. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was forced to spend over $500,000 in TV ads in the race's final week to hammer Turner, and the House Majority PAC also went up with an ad as well. But other groups including the National Organization for Marriage and the Republican Jewish Coalition have also launched direct mail campaigns to bolster Turner. Reruns are profitable: Turner, a former cable TV executive who was incidentally responsible for putting Jerry Springer on the air, was familiar to the district already, having run in 2010, when he received 40 percent against Weiner. Still, the district had been trending Democratic and it saw a big decline from 2000 to 2008 although it still voted for Obama by 11 points. The seeds that were planted then, Turner's been able to capitalize on, as he's been actively courting Orthodox Jewish voters - even though Weprin himself is Orthodox -- and received a key boost when former New York City Mayor Ed Koch crossed party lines to back the Republican, citing Israel specifically. Turner hasn't been without his own missteps, and Weprin has sought to capitalize on his stumble in a debate last week, when he said he hasn't met a tax loophole he doesn't like. But it may be too little too late - both the final Siena College poll and even an autodial poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling gave Turner an unlikely six point lead, and he's been controlling the media message and has had the clear momentum in the race. Where to watch: Weprin - who lives just outside the district and can't vote in today's election -- needs to do well in the area's Democratic strongholds that went heavily for Obama in 2008 - Forest Hills, Rego Park, Fresh Meadows and Kew Gardens. If he's not winning at least three out of every five votes, it's going to be a long night for Democrats. Weprin's placed a heavy emphasis on these areas in the final swing, scheduling subway stops and senior center visits here to make sure his base gets out of the polls. Turner's strong areas are likely to be his home base of Rockaway Beach, Marine Park, and Howard Beach, the site of his campaign headquarters. These areas have trended heavy Republican. These Irish, Greek and Italian Catholic areas went heavily for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., three years ago. Sheepshead Bay area in Brooklyn, a heavily Orthodox Jewish area, is likely to come out strong for the GOP nominee , too. Where the deciding votes could come from: Middle Village, Maspeth and Glendale, where Obama and McCain split their votes. Turner's campaign canvassed Middle Village hard on Saturday. Weprin, in his capacity as a state assemblyman, attended a 9/11 memorial in Glendale on Sunday - even though official campaigning had been suspended, but everywhere along the side streets and businesses, Turner signs and doorknockers could be seen. -- David Wasserman in Washington contributed to this post
http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2011/09/previewing-the-ny-09-special-election-13