Don’t cry for him, South Carolina: the truth is former Gov. Mark Sanford (R) never really left Palmetto State politics.
The battle to succeed newly-appointed Sen. Tim Scott (R) takes on immediate national attention with the likely political return of Sanford, now infamous for an ill-fated disappearance from the state for several days that culminated in a dramatic reveal that he was having an affair with an Argentine woman.
Filing in the 1st District doesn’t even open until January 18 and closes just ten days later, making it a difficult sprint for anyone -- and drawing in some top flight consultants restless for work in the off year. But the open seat has already attracted a wide, diverse cast of characters, aside from Sanford, who represented the district for six years before being elected governor.
The battle to succeed newly-appointed Sen. Tim Scott (R) takes on immediate national attention with the likely political return of Sanford, now infamous for an ill-fated disappearance from the state for several days that culminated in a dramatic reveal that he was having an affair with an Argentine woman.
Filing in the 1st District doesn’t even open until January 18 and closes just ten days later, making it a difficult sprint for anyone -- and drawing in some top flight consultants restless for work in the off year. But the open seat has already attracted a wide, diverse cast of characters, aside from Sanford, who represented the district for six years before being elected governor.
In addition to Sanford, who is expected to make an announcement next week, top contenders include state Sen. Larry Grooms, state Rep. Chip Limehouse, attorney and former state Sen. John Kuhn, state Rep. Andy Patrick and teacher Teddy Turner IV, the son of media mogul and CNN founder Ted Turner.
Further adding to absurdity, now sources say former state Treasurer Thomas Ravenel is also considering his own comeback bid for the seat. The Republican resigned in 2007 and was convicted on federal drug charges. After learning he could never possess a firearm as an ex-con, he briefly renounced his citizenship. Also from a famed political and wealthy family, Ravenel’s father, Arthur Ravenel, represented the 1st District before Sanford.
Several state legislators and other candidates are also considering the race, which could draw as many as a dozen contenders.
The compressed time frame makes money and the ability to quickly put together a campaign all that more important. And the normal political bloodsport that Palmetto State politics brings with it are sure only to be exacerbated during the 10-week sprint to the March 19 GOP primary and subsequent April 2 runoff two weeks later. The special general election will be held May 7.
The GOP nomination in this heavily Republican seat is essentially tantamount to winning the election. National and state Democrats aren’t seriously contesting the seat, but if a damaged Sanford wins, they could be intrigued though it would remain a long-shot. Two early names include two women: Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, the sister of comedian Stephen Colbert who works for a Clemson University satellite facility in Charleston, and fundraising consultant Cappi Wilborn.
The Lay of the Land
The state’s redrawn 1st Congressional District shrank significantly during the redistricting process since the state gained an additional House seat. The new 7th District took away a significant portion of the old 1st C.D., chopping off Myrtle Beach and the northern part of the coast.
The redrawn district is more clearly anchored in and around Charleston, though it stretches further south to take in Beaufort County (from the old 2nd District) and includes the coastal retirement communities and the tourist beaches of Hilton Head Island.
In a general election, the district is dominated heavily by Charleston, making up more than 80 percent of the vote. And while the Holy City and its surrounding areas are still conservative, it is more economically conservative and less socially conservative than the more evangelical Upstate. But the city still definitely trends Republican.
Scott was easily re-elected to a second term in November with 62 percent of the vote, and according to number crunching from Daily Kos Elections, the district gave GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney 58 percent of the vote this past fall, better than his 55 percent showing statewide.
The Republican Field
Sanford immediately casts the largest shadow over the race, though no observer in the state -- even those who are or were at one time close to the former governor -- knows exactly how voters will react to his attempt at political rehabilitation.
The former governor managed to weather the final two years of his last term in office, despite the bizarre circumstances surrounding the discovery of his affair. In June 2009, Sanford disappeared from the state for a week, without even his security detail or chief of staff knowing where he was. He had told his staff he would be hiking the Appalachian Trail, but when a local reporter tracked him down returning from the airport on a flight from Buenos Aires, the sordid saga quickly tumbled out. Sanford held a memorable and teary press conference admitting to the affair.
In subsequent interviews, Sanford called Maria Belen Chapur his “soul mate” and said he had “crossed the lines” with other women during his marriage. Sanford’s wife and closest political adviser, Jenny, moved out of the governor’s mansion during his term and eventually filed for divorce, which was finalized the following year. Last summer, the former governor became engaged to Chapur, who still lives in Argentina.
But it’s not just his personal life Sanford may have to answer for, but other ethics violations while in office that came to light following the affair. He was found to have improperly used state travel resources to conduct the affair and for other personal travel. Sanford reimbursed taxpayers but was censured by the Legislature.
Sanford is likely to enlist Jason Miller of Jamestown Associates as his lead consultant. Miller managed Sanford’s 2006 gubernatorial campaign and later served as his deputy chief of staff.
Jenny Sanford had initially been thought to be considering the race, and re-emerged onto political radar screens last month when she made Gov. Nikki Haley’s (R) shortlist for the Senate appointment. But multiple sources close to the former first lady now say she’s highly unlikely to run, and those also close to her ex-husband say he wouldn’t be pursuing the race if he thought Jenny were in.
Limehouse and Grooms are both Charleston-based state legislators, but with very different political backgrounds.
A longtime Charleston resident who comes from “old money,” Limehouse has served in the state House since first being elected in 1994 from a district that takes in historic downtown and reaches across the Cooper River into Mt. Pleasant. He has been re-elected with relative ease over the years, and also owns a commercial real estate business. Limehouse’s father, Harry “Buck” Limehouse, served as the state Secretary of Transportation and also unsuccessfully sought the 1st District seat, both in a 1971 special election and in 2000.
Limehouse has brought on longtime GOP consultant Tommy Hopper as his general consultant, with other hires to come.
Grooms was first elected to the state Senate in 1997 from the Charleston suburbs in Berkeley County. Before being elected to the Legislature, he launched a chain of local restaurants and convenience stores. Having staked out a very conservative reputation in Columbia, Grooms briefly entered the 2010 Republican primary for governor, but withdrew in January before the primary.
Turner remains somewhat of an anathema to many GOP observers. A Citadel graduate, he worked for his father’s Turner Broadcasting-owned CNN as a cameraman and later competed in an “Around the World” sailboat race. He later settled back in the Lowcountry in the mid-1990s and opened his own yacht construction and repair business. Now, he teaches high school economics at the Charleston Collegiate School.
This is the younger Turner’s first political run, but he has hired an experienced campaign team. He’s hooked former Sanford spokesman and advisor Chris Drummond as his general consultant, Public Opinion Strategies for polling and Nick Everhart of the Strategy Group for paid media.
Kuhn and Patrick are a bit outside the traditional political radar, but if they can put in or raise the money, they can become factors.
A Charleston probate attorney who also has offices in Beaufort, Kuhn was elected to the state Senate in 2001, but lost four years later in a GOP primary following redistricting. Kuhn is also willing to put substantial personal money into his campaign, and also has name ID from his law firm’s advertising. Kuhn has hired veteran state GOP operative Walter Whetsell of Starboard Communications as his lead consultant.
A former secret service agent and state trooper, Patrick, who has represented Hilton Head Island in the state House since his election in 2010, has hired New Hampshire-based RightOn Strategies as his consultants, led by Mike Biundo a veteran Granite State political operative who managed former Sen. Rick Santorum’s (R-Pa.) presidential bid before working as Romney’s deputy coalitions director.
How It Plays Out
Even with his considerable political baggage, Sanford seems almost certain to make the runoff, according to most Republican insiders. The former governor has the highest name ID of any candidate, still has $121,000 in a congressional campaign account that he never closed, and casts an imposing shadow over the field.
But from there, the hike up the proverbial “Trail” becomes a bit steeper. And anyone who doesn’t expect an all-out circus in the 1st District, especially given the still tawdry nature of Sanford’s fall from grace, doesn’t know South Carolina politics.
Sanford is likely to highlight his voting and governing record pre-scandal, and point toward his penny-pincher ways in Congress, when he slept in his office. He received high marks from fiscal conservative groups during his tenure in D.C.
Several GOP operatives agree that Sanford could get a high plurality of the vote in the primary, but they also argue that that showing is probably his ceiling in a runoff. And they believe that it would be harder than he may think for him to cross the 50 percent threshold.
In many recent elections in the state, the abbreviated two-week runoff has been a whole new ballgame, one where the knives really come out.
In the newly-created 7th District GOP runoff in 2012, former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who served under Sanford and was also controversial and polarizing, was widely regarded as a sure-thing to advance to the runoff because of his name ID and money edge. It was only in the runoff, against Tom Rice (R), that Bauer’s checkered past was brought front and center. Rice ended up winning the runoff and eventually the seat in Congress.
A similar scenario could play out in the 1st District, with the candidates ignoring Sanford and aiming to make the runoff against him. Only then would Sanford’s former foes unite and unload on the one-time governor.
Money will be crucial in the race, since most of the hopefuls will need to introduce themselves to voters in a moderately expensive media market, that mostly includes Charleston but also takes in a sliver of Savannah, Georgia.
Turner has money he can put into his campaign and also benefits from a famous name, but one that may not necessarily help him in a GOP primary. While the local teacher says he’s always been at odds with his father’s famed liberal streak, his entrance into the political realm has puzzled many observers who don’t really know what to make of him. His time in Charleston has been wide and varied, and he plans to highlight his business background and run as a political outsider.
Limehouse is seen as the establishment pick, especially after having been in the state House for nearly two decades. He will also have plenty of money and has name recognition as well (the bridge that crosses over to Johns Island is named for his grandfather). But conservative activists and other Republicans are certain to challenge his conservative bona fides and voting record, even painting him as a moderate.
Grooms appears, for now, to be the top tier candidate with the shallowest pockets. Several state GOP sources pointed out that he was briefly in the 2010 GOP primary for governor but withdrew after lackluster fundraising, inevitably raising questions as to how he can raise money in such an abbreviated time frame.
But those same sources point to Grooms as a natural favorite of the tea party base, and if he can tap into the grassroots, he could have a path to get a plurality to make it into the runoff.
Outside money could boost Grooms’ chances and so far he’s the only candidate that has met with the Club for Growth, though several other campaigns have indicated they plan to as well. Sanford has enjoyed Club support in the past but that is not a guarantee of future support. While the Club hasn’t yet made an endorsement in this race, a crowded GOP primary where they can wield considerable influence is exactly the type of race they would take a serious look at.
This won’t be an entirely geographical battle, but Charleston is still the heart of this district, and it’s where most of the votes will come. In the GOP primary, just over 40 percent of the vote is likely to come from Charleston itself, with about 25 percent from Beaufort/Hilton Head, and the rest from the Charleston suburbs. The key will be putting together a ground game, noticeable advertising and mail, and getting supporters out to the polls in a low-turnout special election.
Kuhn has the potential to become a factor, especially if he spends heavily. His law firm, Kuhn & Kuhn, is well-known in the area, but he hasn’t been on a ballot as recently as Limehouse or Grooms.
Patrick could be banking on being the candidate “outside” of Charleston, hoping the other men in the race split the city’s vote. But Hilton Head, a quirky resort town that draws an eclectic mix of tourists, in reality has little in common with the Beaufort, which is more like Charleston in its gentry culture.
The Bottom Line
For the majority of this contest, it is going to be the Sanford show. Can the former governor, fallen from grace, rebuild and rebrand himself? Will he have another stemwinder of a press conference? Does Jenny interject herself at all? The national press, and especially Palmetto State pens, love scandal, and this has it all and then some.
Sanford is the frontrunner for now, but his path to victory isn’t as clear cut as many believe. He should put together a strong campaign, and he’s always been a formidable politician. But his trek to Argentina changes how he is viewed, and some of the ethics violations and misuse of funds that got lost in the sexier furor may mute his message of fiscal discipline.
The biggest battle of the primary is the contest to see who comes in second and earn the right to face Sanford in the runoff. For now, money may trump any grassroots, so Limehouse, Turner and Kuhn are all prime suspects. But Grooms can also be a factor, particularly if he can raise money, or if money comes in on his behalf.
Sit back, and buckle up.
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/south-carolina-1taking-the-appalachian-trail-to-congress
Further adding to absurdity, now sources say former state Treasurer Thomas Ravenel is also considering his own comeback bid for the seat. The Republican resigned in 2007 and was convicted on federal drug charges. After learning he could never possess a firearm as an ex-con, he briefly renounced his citizenship. Also from a famed political and wealthy family, Ravenel’s father, Arthur Ravenel, represented the 1st District before Sanford.
Several state legislators and other candidates are also considering the race, which could draw as many as a dozen contenders.
The compressed time frame makes money and the ability to quickly put together a campaign all that more important. And the normal political bloodsport that Palmetto State politics brings with it are sure only to be exacerbated during the 10-week sprint to the March 19 GOP primary and subsequent April 2 runoff two weeks later. The special general election will be held May 7.
The GOP nomination in this heavily Republican seat is essentially tantamount to winning the election. National and state Democrats aren’t seriously contesting the seat, but if a damaged Sanford wins, they could be intrigued though it would remain a long-shot. Two early names include two women: Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, the sister of comedian Stephen Colbert who works for a Clemson University satellite facility in Charleston, and fundraising consultant Cappi Wilborn.
The Lay of the Land
The state’s redrawn 1st Congressional District shrank significantly during the redistricting process since the state gained an additional House seat. The new 7th District took away a significant portion of the old 1st C.D., chopping off Myrtle Beach and the northern part of the coast.
The redrawn district is more clearly anchored in and around Charleston, though it stretches further south to take in Beaufort County (from the old 2nd District) and includes the coastal retirement communities and the tourist beaches of Hilton Head Island.
In a general election, the district is dominated heavily by Charleston, making up more than 80 percent of the vote. And while the Holy City and its surrounding areas are still conservative, it is more economically conservative and less socially conservative than the more evangelical Upstate. But the city still definitely trends Republican.
Scott was easily re-elected to a second term in November with 62 percent of the vote, and according to number crunching from Daily Kos Elections, the district gave GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney 58 percent of the vote this past fall, better than his 55 percent showing statewide.
The Republican Field
Sanford immediately casts the largest shadow over the race, though no observer in the state -- even those who are or were at one time close to the former governor -- knows exactly how voters will react to his attempt at political rehabilitation.
The former governor managed to weather the final two years of his last term in office, despite the bizarre circumstances surrounding the discovery of his affair. In June 2009, Sanford disappeared from the state for a week, without even his security detail or chief of staff knowing where he was. He had told his staff he would be hiking the Appalachian Trail, but when a local reporter tracked him down returning from the airport on a flight from Buenos Aires, the sordid saga quickly tumbled out. Sanford held a memorable and teary press conference admitting to the affair.
In subsequent interviews, Sanford called Maria Belen Chapur his “soul mate” and said he had “crossed the lines” with other women during his marriage. Sanford’s wife and closest political adviser, Jenny, moved out of the governor’s mansion during his term and eventually filed for divorce, which was finalized the following year. Last summer, the former governor became engaged to Chapur, who still lives in Argentina.
But it’s not just his personal life Sanford may have to answer for, but other ethics violations while in office that came to light following the affair. He was found to have improperly used state travel resources to conduct the affair and for other personal travel. Sanford reimbursed taxpayers but was censured by the Legislature.
Sanford is likely to enlist Jason Miller of Jamestown Associates as his lead consultant. Miller managed Sanford’s 2006 gubernatorial campaign and later served as his deputy chief of staff.
Jenny Sanford had initially been thought to be considering the race, and re-emerged onto political radar screens last month when she made Gov. Nikki Haley’s (R) shortlist for the Senate appointment. But multiple sources close to the former first lady now say she’s highly unlikely to run, and those also close to her ex-husband say he wouldn’t be pursuing the race if he thought Jenny were in.
Limehouse and Grooms are both Charleston-based state legislators, but with very different political backgrounds.
A longtime Charleston resident who comes from “old money,” Limehouse has served in the state House since first being elected in 1994 from a district that takes in historic downtown and reaches across the Cooper River into Mt. Pleasant. He has been re-elected with relative ease over the years, and also owns a commercial real estate business. Limehouse’s father, Harry “Buck” Limehouse, served as the state Secretary of Transportation and also unsuccessfully sought the 1st District seat, both in a 1971 special election and in 2000.
Limehouse has brought on longtime GOP consultant Tommy Hopper as his general consultant, with other hires to come.
Grooms was first elected to the state Senate in 1997 from the Charleston suburbs in Berkeley County. Before being elected to the Legislature, he launched a chain of local restaurants and convenience stores. Having staked out a very conservative reputation in Columbia, Grooms briefly entered the 2010 Republican primary for governor, but withdrew in January before the primary.
Turner remains somewhat of an anathema to many GOP observers. A Citadel graduate, he worked for his father’s Turner Broadcasting-owned CNN as a cameraman and later competed in an “Around the World” sailboat race. He later settled back in the Lowcountry in the mid-1990s and opened his own yacht construction and repair business. Now, he teaches high school economics at the Charleston Collegiate School.
This is the younger Turner’s first political run, but he has hired an experienced campaign team. He’s hooked former Sanford spokesman and advisor Chris Drummond as his general consultant, Public Opinion Strategies for polling and Nick Everhart of the Strategy Group for paid media.
Kuhn and Patrick are a bit outside the traditional political radar, but if they can put in or raise the money, they can become factors.
A Charleston probate attorney who also has offices in Beaufort, Kuhn was elected to the state Senate in 2001, but lost four years later in a GOP primary following redistricting. Kuhn is also willing to put substantial personal money into his campaign, and also has name ID from his law firm’s advertising. Kuhn has hired veteran state GOP operative Walter Whetsell of Starboard Communications as his lead consultant.
A former secret service agent and state trooper, Patrick, who has represented Hilton Head Island in the state House since his election in 2010, has hired New Hampshire-based RightOn Strategies as his consultants, led by Mike Biundo a veteran Granite State political operative who managed former Sen. Rick Santorum’s (R-Pa.) presidential bid before working as Romney’s deputy coalitions director.
How It Plays Out
Even with his considerable political baggage, Sanford seems almost certain to make the runoff, according to most Republican insiders. The former governor has the highest name ID of any candidate, still has $121,000 in a congressional campaign account that he never closed, and casts an imposing shadow over the field.
But from there, the hike up the proverbial “Trail” becomes a bit steeper. And anyone who doesn’t expect an all-out circus in the 1st District, especially given the still tawdry nature of Sanford’s fall from grace, doesn’t know South Carolina politics.
Sanford is likely to highlight his voting and governing record pre-scandal, and point toward his penny-pincher ways in Congress, when he slept in his office. He received high marks from fiscal conservative groups during his tenure in D.C.
Several GOP operatives agree that Sanford could get a high plurality of the vote in the primary, but they also argue that that showing is probably his ceiling in a runoff. And they believe that it would be harder than he may think for him to cross the 50 percent threshold.
In many recent elections in the state, the abbreviated two-week runoff has been a whole new ballgame, one where the knives really come out.
In the newly-created 7th District GOP runoff in 2012, former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who served under Sanford and was also controversial and polarizing, was widely regarded as a sure-thing to advance to the runoff because of his name ID and money edge. It was only in the runoff, against Tom Rice (R), that Bauer’s checkered past was brought front and center. Rice ended up winning the runoff and eventually the seat in Congress.
A similar scenario could play out in the 1st District, with the candidates ignoring Sanford and aiming to make the runoff against him. Only then would Sanford’s former foes unite and unload on the one-time governor.
Money will be crucial in the race, since most of the hopefuls will need to introduce themselves to voters in a moderately expensive media market, that mostly includes Charleston but also takes in a sliver of Savannah, Georgia.
Turner has money he can put into his campaign and also benefits from a famous name, but one that may not necessarily help him in a GOP primary. While the local teacher says he’s always been at odds with his father’s famed liberal streak, his entrance into the political realm has puzzled many observers who don’t really know what to make of him. His time in Charleston has been wide and varied, and he plans to highlight his business background and run as a political outsider.
Limehouse is seen as the establishment pick, especially after having been in the state House for nearly two decades. He will also have plenty of money and has name recognition as well (the bridge that crosses over to Johns Island is named for his grandfather). But conservative activists and other Republicans are certain to challenge his conservative bona fides and voting record, even painting him as a moderate.
Grooms appears, for now, to be the top tier candidate with the shallowest pockets. Several state GOP sources pointed out that he was briefly in the 2010 GOP primary for governor but withdrew after lackluster fundraising, inevitably raising questions as to how he can raise money in such an abbreviated time frame.
But those same sources point to Grooms as a natural favorite of the tea party base, and if he can tap into the grassroots, he could have a path to get a plurality to make it into the runoff.
Outside money could boost Grooms’ chances and so far he’s the only candidate that has met with the Club for Growth, though several other campaigns have indicated they plan to as well. Sanford has enjoyed Club support in the past but that is not a guarantee of future support. While the Club hasn’t yet made an endorsement in this race, a crowded GOP primary where they can wield considerable influence is exactly the type of race they would take a serious look at.
This won’t be an entirely geographical battle, but Charleston is still the heart of this district, and it’s where most of the votes will come. In the GOP primary, just over 40 percent of the vote is likely to come from Charleston itself, with about 25 percent from Beaufort/Hilton Head, and the rest from the Charleston suburbs. The key will be putting together a ground game, noticeable advertising and mail, and getting supporters out to the polls in a low-turnout special election.
Kuhn has the potential to become a factor, especially if he spends heavily. His law firm, Kuhn & Kuhn, is well-known in the area, but he hasn’t been on a ballot as recently as Limehouse or Grooms.
Patrick could be banking on being the candidate “outside” of Charleston, hoping the other men in the race split the city’s vote. But Hilton Head, a quirky resort town that draws an eclectic mix of tourists, in reality has little in common with the Beaufort, which is more like Charleston in its gentry culture.
The Bottom Line
For the majority of this contest, it is going to be the Sanford show. Can the former governor, fallen from grace, rebuild and rebrand himself? Will he have another stemwinder of a press conference? Does Jenny interject herself at all? The national press, and especially Palmetto State pens, love scandal, and this has it all and then some.
Sanford is the frontrunner for now, but his path to victory isn’t as clear cut as many believe. He should put together a strong campaign, and he’s always been a formidable politician. But his trek to Argentina changes how he is viewed, and some of the ethics violations and misuse of funds that got lost in the sexier furor may mute his message of fiscal discipline.
The biggest battle of the primary is the contest to see who comes in second and earn the right to face Sanford in the runoff. For now, money may trump any grassroots, so Limehouse, Turner and Kuhn are all prime suspects. But Grooms can also be a factor, particularly if he can raise money, or if money comes in on his behalf.
Sit back, and buckle up.
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/south-carolina-1taking-the-appalachian-trail-to-congress