By Jessica Taylor and Carrie Mihalcik
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a list of 15 Frontline incumbents that it's most focused on protecting. But with several of these members likely to find themselves in less-favorable districts after the remapping process ends, the DCCC may not be able to do much to help them.
Here's a look at the members the DCCC is concentrating on and why these incumbents need the committee's help:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a list of 15 Frontline incumbents that it's most focused on protecting. But with several of these members likely to find themselves in less-favorable districts after the remapping process ends, the DCCC may not be able to do much to help them.
Here's a look at the members the DCCC is concentrating on and why these incumbents need the committee's help:
Rep. Tim Bishop, D-N.Y.
Bishop survived a challenge from Republican Randy Altschuler by just 593 votes in 2010 after a recount that dragged on for more than a month after Election Day. His district could be altered to his benefit in redistricting, but Republicans may still try again there.
Bishop survived a challenge from Republican Randy Altschuler by just 593 votes in 2010 after a recount that dragged on for more than a month after Election Day. His district could be altered to his benefit in redistricting, but Republicans may still try again there.
Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa
Despite persistent retirement questions, this eight-term Democrat and frequent Republican target has insisted that he’ll run again in 2012. But with Iowa losing a congressional seat, he could be drawn into a battle with another incumbent.
Despite persistent retirement questions, this eight-term Democrat and frequent Republican target has insisted that he’ll run again in 2012. But with Iowa losing a congressional seat, he could be drawn into a battle with another incumbent.
Rep. Russ Carnahan, D-Mo.
Carnahan had a closer-than-expected race in 2010 and defeated GOP challenger Ed Martin by just over 4,600 votes. And Carnahan’s suburban St. Louis district could be drawn out of existence in the remapping.
Carnahan had a closer-than-expected race in 2010 and defeated GOP challenger Ed Martin by just over 4,600 votes. And Carnahan’s suburban St. Louis district could be drawn out of existence in the remapping.
Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Ky.
This four-term Democrat survived the 2010 election by just 647 votes--the second-closest contest in the country. Republicans are ready for another go at Chandler after that narrow miss, and he’s at the top of GOP target lists.
This four-term Democrat survived the 2010 election by just 647 votes--the second-closest contest in the country. Republicans are ready for another go at Chandler after that narrow miss, and he’s at the top of GOP target lists.
Rep. Gerald Connolly, D-Va.
In Connolly’s 2010 rematch with Republican Keith Fimian, he won by just 981 votes—after defeating Fimian two years before by more than 41,000. Although Northern Virginia tilts Democratic, Republicans performed well here in the 2009 statewide elections. Still, with Obama at the top of the ticket in 2012 it will be a different dynamic. On Friday, Connolly passed on running for the Senate, so his focus will be his own reelection next year.
In Connolly’s 2010 rematch with Republican Keith Fimian, he won by just 981 votes—after defeating Fimian two years before by more than 41,000. Although Northern Virginia tilts Democratic, Republicans performed well here in the 2009 statewide elections. Still, with Obama at the top of the ticket in 2012 it will be a different dynamic. On Friday, Connolly passed on running for the Senate, so his focus will be his own reelection next year.
Rep. Mark Critz, D-Pa.
Critz could be the odd man out after redistricting in the Keystone State, but he defied a GOP wave in 2010 to hang on after winning a narrow special election just six months before. To the GOP, he’s the one that got away.
Critz could be the odd man out after redistricting in the Keystone State, but he defied a GOP wave in 2010 to hang on after winning a narrow special election just six months before. To the GOP, he’s the one that got away.
Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz.
Giffords was one of the more surprising inclusions on the list, as the Arizonan is still recovering from a near-fatal attempt on her life in January. Democrats explained that they were trying to make sure that Giffords has the resources she needs when she recovers, but it’s highly unlikely that Republicans would seriously challenge her if she runs in 2012.
Giffords was one of the more surprising inclusions on the list, as the Arizonan is still recovering from a near-fatal attempt on her life in January. Democrats explained that they were trying to make sure that Giffords has the resources she needs when she recovers, but it’s highly unlikely that Republicans would seriously challenge her if she runs in 2012.
Rep. Larry Kissell, D-N.C.
Kissell emerged victorious by a more-comfortable margin than expected last year--but his is still among a handful Democratic seats in the state that the GOP wants to move to its column in 2012.
Kissell emerged victorious by a more-comfortable margin than expected last year--but his is still among a handful Democratic seats in the state that the GOP wants to move to its column in 2012.
Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah
Matheson has been a thorn in the GOP’s side for a while, and not one that Republicans have been able to challenge seriously before. In 2010, he had an easier reelection than most of his Blue Dog Democrat counterparts, winning by more than 10,000 votes. But he has quickly emerged as a top Republican target in 2012, especially with the possibility that his vast district could become more GOP-friendly in redistricting now that Utah has gained a congressional seat.
Matheson has been a thorn in the GOP’s side for a while, and not one that Republicans have been able to challenge seriously before. In 2010, he had an easier reelection than most of his Blue Dog Democrat counterparts, winning by more than 10,000 votes. But he has quickly emerged as a top Republican target in 2012, especially with the possibility that his vast district could become more GOP-friendly in redistricting now that Utah has gained a congressional seat.
Rep. Mike McIntyre, D-N.C.
McIntyre’s 2010 challenger, veteran Ilario Pantano, has already announced that he’s running again after falling short last year by a little less than 16,000 votes. With the GOP in charge of drawing district lines in the Tar Heel State, Republicans think they have a chance to win here.
McIntyre’s 2010 challenger, veteran Ilario Pantano, has already announced that he’s running again after falling short last year by a little less than 16,000 votes. With the GOP in charge of drawing district lines in the Tar Heel State, Republicans think they have a chance to win here.
Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Calif.
McNerney has been a Republican target since he narrowly defeated GOP Rep. Richard Pombo in 2006. In 2010, Republican David Harmer came within 2,658 votes of winning the seat, so McNerney is sure to be a top target again next year.
McNerney has been a Republican target since he narrowly defeated GOP Rep. Richard Pombo in 2006. In 2010, Republican David Harmer came within 2,658 votes of winning the seat, so McNerney is sure to be a top target again next year.
Rep. Bill Owens, D-N.Y.
Owens won a 2009 special election thanks to a GOP schism. Republicans thought they could defeat Owens in 2010; but although Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, who was the spoiler in Owens’s first election, eventually dropped out of the race, his name remained on the ballot and he still got almost 10,000 votes--more than Owens’s margin of victory. If it’s a clear two-way matchup in 2012, Owens could be in trouble.
Owens won a 2009 special election thanks to a GOP schism. Republicans thought they could defeat Owens in 2010; but although Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, who was the spoiler in Owens’s first election, eventually dropped out of the race, his name remained on the ballot and he still got almost 10,000 votes--more than Owens’s margin of victory. If it’s a clear two-way matchup in 2012, Owens could be in trouble.
Rep. Gary Peters, D-Mich.
Peters won a second term in November by a little more than 6,400 votes, and he’s already a top GOP target again in 2012, especially because his district faces significant changes--and possible elimination--when a new map is drawn.
Peters won a second term in November by a little more than 6,400 votes, and he’s already a top GOP target again in 2012, especially because his district faces significant changes--and possible elimination--when a new map is drawn.
Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Ore.
Schrader didn’t have as difficult an election in 2010 as some other Democrats, winning by 15,000 votes; but how much harder his chances will be in 2012 won’t be known until his district lines are redrawn.
Schrader didn’t have as difficult an election in 2010 as some other Democrats, winning by 15,000 votes; but how much harder his chances will be in 2012 won’t be known until his district lines are redrawn.
Rep. Tim Walz, D-Minn.
Walz won reelection in 2010 by more than 13,000 votes, but that’s about the same number that an independent candidate also drew. Republicans will keep a close eye on his expansive southern Minnesota district to see whether it could be competitive again.
Walz won reelection in 2010 by more than 13,000 votes, but that’s about the same number that an independent candidate also drew. Republicans will keep a close eye on his expansive southern Minnesota district to see whether it could be competitive again.
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http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/the-dccc-s-frontline-15-at-risk-democrats-20110304
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/the-dccc-s-frontline-15-at-risk-democrats-20110304